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Jun 5, 2023
Rating: neutral; Bharat Forge: Artillery guns orders to add to the revenue

Pune-based leading forging firm, Bharat Forge Q3FY23 standalone revenue of Rs 1,950 crore +22% y-y was 1-3% was above our forecast and the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Ebitda margin at 25.3% was impacted by -40 bp q-q decline in raw material (RM)/sales at 44.1%. Overseas subs Ebitda margin remained weak at -5.8%.

Management commentary:

Our view: We believe BHFC has made strong progress in the non-auto and defence segment, with artillery guns orders having the potential to contribute 10% additional revenue over time, Aluminium Forging for PVs, and EVs components, which could contribute more in the long run. However, we believe that there can be a slowdown in global truck (23% of revenues) and global industrial segment (20%). With the fall in natural gas prices, upside risks to shale gas segment (10%) are also lower than earlier. India MHCV demand is expected to slow down to 10% y-o-y growth in FY24F from 35% y-y in FY23F, as upsides from new initiatives are balanced with the slowdown risks in traditional businesses. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Neutral.

We raise our overall consolidated revenues by 0%/7.5%/6% for FY23- 25F. Ebitda estimates are cut by -15% / -1%/ -3.5% to factor in lower margins in overseas subsidiaries/India business. Thus, EPS is cut by 36%/5%/8% over FY23-25F. We maintain our target EV/Ebitda of 16x and roll forward the valuation to FY25F (Dec-23F earlier). The stock is currently trading at 13.9x FY25F EV/Ebitda, which we believe is fair. Hence, we downgrade to Neutral. We prefer Sona Comstar and Unominda in the sector.

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Jun 4, 2023
Nifty to reclaim 18000 or bears to disrupt Dalal Street? 7 things to know before market opening bell

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted note on Monday, hinted SGX Nifty. On the Singapore Exchange, Nifty futures were trading lower at 17813. In the previous session, BSE Sensex rallied 910 pts or 1.52% to 60,842, while NSE Nifty 50 jumped 1.4% to 17,854. “Banking stocks will react on Monday to SBI results. Investors await key monthly US jobs data. This week, the market will keep eye on US Fed Chair Powell’s speech due on Tuesday,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Key things to know before share market opens

Global market watch: Stocks in the Asia-Pacific mostly fell on Monday as a stronger-than-expected jobs report from the US worrying investors the Federal Reserve has room for more interest rate hikes, as it continued its efforts to control inflation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2%. In Mainland China, the Shenzhen Component shed 1% and the Shanghai Composite also lost 0.9%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.9%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7%. Over in the US, Wall Street stocks fell on Friday. Dow Jones fell 0.38%, S&P 500 lost 1.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.59%.

Key levels to watch: “If Nifty manages to trade above 17950, then we can expect a move towards the 18200–18300 zone. On the downside, 17400 will act as an immediate support level, while the 200-DMA of 17300 is a sacrosanct support level on a closing basis. Bank Nifty is holding a psychological level of 40,000 on a closing basis. 200-DMA is around 39,000, a key support level. 41800, 42000, and 42600 will be resistances on the upside,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

FII and DII data: Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 932.44 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased shares worth Rs 1,264.74 crore on 3 February, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: The National Stock Exchange has Adani Ports on its F&O ban list for 6 February 6. According to the NSE, the stocks mentioned above are prohibited in the F&O sector because they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Q3 Results today: Tata Steel, Adani Transmission, AGS Transact Technologies, Balaji Amines, Easy Trip Planners, Infibeam Avenues, JK Paper, Kolte-Patil Developers, LIC Housing Finance, Monte Carlo Fashions, Muthoot Finance, Nuvoco Vistas Corporation, OnMobile Global, Shankara Building Products, SJVN, Tejas Networks, Unichem Laboratories, and Varun Beverages will report their quarterly earnings on Monday, 6 January.

Crude prices rise: Oil prices inched up in early trade on Monday after falling around 8% last week to more than three-week lows as jitters over major economies outweighed signs of a demand recovery in China, the world’s top oil importer. Brent crude futures crawled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.10 a barrel at 0022 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 15 cents, also 0.2% higher, to $73.54 a barrel.

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Jun 2, 2023
Nifty surpasses 18100, Sensex rises 350 pts in early trade on Thu, Feb 16; Vedanta shares rise, Vodafone Idea falls

Indian equity indices opened broadly higher on Thursday, ie, weekly expiry day. The BSE Sensex fell 366.60 pts or 0.60% to 61,641.32 and the Nifty 50 surged 105.80 pts or 0.59% to 18,121.65. The top gainers on Nifty 50 were Adani Enterprises (up 3.78%), ONGC (up 3.05%), Apollo Hospital (up 3.05%), Adani Ports (up 2.83%) and Tech Mahindra (up 2.83%) while Hero Motocorp (down 0.37%), Bajaj Finance (down 0.34%), Grasim (down 0.26%), SBI Life (down 0.24%) and Bajaj Finserv (down 0.12%).

Vodafone Idea shares fell 2.58% to Rs 7.55. The company is in advanced discussions with telecom equipment makers for its 5G rollout strategy and will comply with minimum 5G rollout obligations, according to its chief executive Akshaya Moondra.

Sectoral Indices

All the sectoral indices were trading in green. Bank Nifty rose 0.38%, Nifty IT surged 1.33%, Nifty FMCG climbed 0.30%, Nifty Pharma was up 0.70% and Nifty Metal was up 1.18%.

Asian and US stock markets

Asian markets were trading in green in the early morning trade with China’s Shanghai Composite index rising 13.10 pts or 0.40% to 3,294.81, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 193.30 or 0.70% to 27,695.16, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 332 pts or 1.60% to 21,144.17 and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 40.49 pts or 1.69% to 2,468.44.

The US equity market ended the overnight session in the green territory with Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 38.78 pts or 0.11% to 34,128.05, S&P 500 was up 11.47 pts or 0.28% to 4,147.60 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index climbed 110.45 or 0.92% to 12,070.59.

FII and DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth a net Rs 432.15 crore while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased shares worth a net Rs 516.64 crore on Wednesday, February 15, 2023, according to the data available on NSE. For the month till February 15, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 2,354.37 crore while DIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 7,696.17 crore.

NSE F&O Ban

BHEL, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Ambuja Cements and Punjab National Bank (PNB) are the stocks/securities placed on the National Stock Exchange’s futures and options (F&O) ban for trade on Thursday, February 16.

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Jun 1, 2023
Markets Wrap – Wed, 8 Feb ‘23: Stocks rise, rupee appreciates; Asia, Europe markets, Gold, Crude, Crypto updates

Indian equity indices surged on Wednesday after RBI MPC raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points, taking the repo rate to 6.5%. The rate hike was in line with market expectations. The Nifty closed above 17850 and Sensex settled above 60650. The top gainers of the BSE Sensex were Bajaj Finance (up 3.14%), UltraTech Cement (up 2.47%), Reliance Industries Ltd (up 1.99%), Infosys (up 1.75%) and Wipro (up 1.57%) while Larsen & Toubro (down 1.62%), Bharti Airtel (down 1.31%), Axis Bank (down 0.78%), Kotak Bank (down 0.59%) and Hindustan Unilever (down 0.58%) were the losers.

Asian Markets

Asian markets closed broadly lower on Wednesday. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 15.99 pts or 0.49% to 3,232.11, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 15.18 pts or 0.07% to 21,283.52 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 79.01 pts or 0.29% to 27,606.46 while South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 31.93 or 1.30% to 2,483.64.

European Markets

European markets were trading in the green. England’s FTSE100 was trading at 7,922.73, up 86.20 points or 1.10% at 3:10 PM (IST). Europe’s Euronext100 was up 10.74 points or 0.8% at 1,347.83. France’s CAC was trading 35.50 points or 0.53% higher at 7,172.63. Germany’s DAX was up 106.41 points or 0.69% at 15,452.21.

US Markets

The US equity indices ended the overnight session in green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 265.67 or 0.78% to 34,156.69, S&P 500 climbed 52.92 pts or 1.29% to 4,164.00 and Nasdaq Composite Index rose 226.34 or 1.90% to 12,113.79.

Rupee movement

The Indian rupee appreciated 0.19% to 82.53 against the US dollar at 3:10 PM (IST).

Gold, Silver

Gold futures on the multi-commodity exchange for April delivery were trading at Rs 57,332.00 up 75 points or 0.13% while Silver futures for March delivery were up 170 points or 0.25% at Rs 67,699.00 at 3:15 PM (IST).

Crude oil

WTI Crude futures for March delivery were up 1.4% at $78.22 while Brent Crude futures for March delivery were trading 1.08% higher at $84.59 at 3:15 PM (IST).

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) at 3:15 PM (IST) was trading at $23,209.97, up by 1.09% in the last 24 hours. Its total market cap is $447,331,729,031. Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,671.46, up by 1.96% in the last 24 hours. It has a total market cap of $204,541,192,948.

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May 31, 2023
Nifty may head to 16500-16350 if it stays below 16888; watch SBI, Titan, DLF for stock-specific action

By Shivangi Sarda

Nifty index opened positive on Wednesday but failed to hold above 17130 zones and cascaded down throughout the session. Weakness got a tailwind in the second half of the session after the RBI Statement and the index breached its crucial support zones to touch the intraday low of 16623 levels. It formed a strong Bearish candle on the daily scale and closed with losses of 390 points.

Bank Nifty opened positive but failed to hold above 36300 zones and slipped down by almost 1200 points from its higher zones. It remained relatively resilient in the first half of the session but was overshadowed by weakness and it closed with losses of 900 points. It formed a strong Bearish candle on daily scale and supports shift lower.

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 35000 then 35500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 36500 then 36000 strike. We have seen significant Call writing in 36000 while Put writing is witnessed at 32000 with unwinding at 36000 strike. Now till it holds below 35500 zones, weakness could be seen towards 35250 and 35000 zones whereas resistances are placed at 35750 and 36000 zones.

On sectoral front, all the sectors are traded in the negative territory out of which Media, Realty, Banking, Financial Services and Pharma space witnessed the most weakness.

Now till it holds below 16888 zones, weakness could be seen towards 16500 and 16350 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 17000 and 17071 zones. Traders are advised to stay light with positive stock specific action in Britannia, Petronet, Powergrid and NTPC while weakness in Voltas, Naukri, Apollo Hospital, DLF, Ramco Cement, PEL, National Aluminium, Jubilant Foodworks, Lal Path Labs, Ashokley, Bajaj Finance, Pidilitind, Bank Baroda, Sun TV, Hindalco, Dixon, Can Bank, Berger Paint, SRF, Glenmark, Titan, Divislabs, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, and State Bank of India.

(Shivangi Sarda is an Analyst – Equity Derivatives & Technicals, Broking & Distribution at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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May 30, 2023
Gold to trade sideways to down this week, Silver to trade lower on weak demand; check support, resistance

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded lower with most of the commodities in the non-agro segment continued downside for the week except energy complex. Bullion prices traded volatile during the week on FED jitters and a stronger dollar. Crude oil prices rallied nearly 5% while natural gas prices rallied by more than 12% for the week on tight supplies and higher demand amid geopolitical risk. Base metals ended down on China demand worries following slowdown fear amid rising COVID-19 cases. The dollar index ended 0.68% up at 103.66 for the week.

Silver prices extended decline with spot silver prices at COMEX fell by 1.83% to $22.36 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver May futures fell by 1.59% to Rs. 62548 per KG for the week. Silver prices declined with fall in industrial metals amid rising COVID cases in China. The CFTC data showed that money managers have decreased their net long positions by 11273 lots in the last week.

Bullion prices fell for the third week on the trot with gold prices reporting the longest weekly loses since December 2021. Bullion prices traded under pressure on stronger dollar and volatile bond yields as speculation over high inflation worries kept bond yields up. The market had already discounted 50 bps hike in key interest rates which supported precious metals to rebound post US FOMC after FED chair Jerome Powell ruled out more aggressive increases. A selloff in long-end Treasuries has pushed 10-year yields firmly above 3%. The rising energy costs over the supply worries has spurred inflation worries while major central banks are set to shift policy stance to tackle inflation. The geopolitical risk over Russia-Ukraine conflict, higher oil prices and China COVID worries are the supporting factors which may limit downside in precious metals.

Gold prices may struggle to find a trend in short term and are expected to keep current trading range intact. Silver prices may trade under pressure following weaker demand.

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down this week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1920 per ounce and support at $1850 per ounce. At MCX, Gold June prices have near term resistance at Rs. 52100 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 50800 per 10 gram. COMEX Spot silver has near term resistance at $23.60 per ounce with support at $21.30 per ounce. MCX Silver July has important resistance at Rs. 64500 per KG and support at Rs. 60200 per KG.

(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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May 30, 2023
NSE FO ban: Ambuja Cements and others under ban on Monday, February 13, 2023

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) banned the trading in futures and options (F&O) of up to two stocks/securities on Monday, February 13, 2023. Indiabulls Housing Finance and Ambuja Cements are the stocks/securities placed on the National Stock Exchange’s futures and options (F&O) ban for trade on Monday. According to the NSE, the stocks mentioned above are prohibited in the F&O sector because they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Earlier, on Friday, the total number of contracts traded in Index futures was 2,44,635 with a turnover of Rs 23,324.37 crore; while contracts traded in stock futures were 7,57,418 with a turnover of Rs 49,196.68 crore.

The same stocks, Indiabulls Housing Finance and Ambuja Cements were put on the F&O ban earlier on Friday, February 10, 2023. The domestic equity indices ended the previous session mildly in red with Nifty 50 declining 37 points or 0.21% to 17,856.5 while Sensex closed 123 points lower at 60,682.7.

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May 29, 2023
Adani Group stocks bounce back from lows, Adani Enterprises up 101% in 4 days; is Hindenburg hangover fading?

Adani Group stocks rallied for the second straight day on Wednesday. The Gautam Adani-led conglomerate’s flagship firm Adani Enterprises was top gainer on the Nifty 50 index, zooming 11%, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shares were also among the top gainers, soaring around 8% in early trade. Adani group companies’ market value, which fell around $120 billion after claims of accounting fraud were levelled by short-seller US investment group Hindenburg Research, has seen a resurgence in the past few sessions. The rise in two consecutive sessions has helped trim the total loss to below $110 billion. The surge came after the group stated that it was repaying early loans worth $1.1 billion.

9 out of 10 Adani group stocks rally

Adani Enterprises share price hit 10% upper circuit limit at Rs 1,982.75, while Adani Transmission shares climbed 4.87% to Rs 1,312.70 after the company reported a 73% jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 478 crore for the December quarter. Adani Green Energy stocks rallied 2.48% to Rs 864.10 after the company consolidated profit more than doubled to Rs 103 crore in December quarter. Ambuja Cements shares jumped 2.27% and Adani Wilmar hit its 5% upper circuit limit at Rs 419.35.

Adani group stocks rise from the ashes; Hindenburg effect fading?

Adani Enterprises share price has rebounded 101% from a 52-week low hit on 3 February. The stock is currently trading 51% lower from its 52-week high hit last year in December. Adani Ports shares have rallied 50% from a 52-week low hit on 3 February. It is currently trading 40% lower from the 52-week high hit last year in September. Adani Total Gas is still down 65% from its 52-week price of Rs 3,998 hit on 23 January.

Adani Power share price has bounced back 7% from its recent low of Rs 170. However, the stock is trading 33% down from the closing price of 24 January, when Hindenburg released its report. Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy shares have surged nearly 10% and 7% respectively from their 52-week lows hit this week. Meanwhile, Adani Wilmar share price has rebounded 16% from its recent low.

StocksCMPRecent lowRecoveryAdani Enterprises20491017101%Adani Transmission131411989.6%Adani Wilmar41936116%Adani Ports59839451%Ambuja Cements38431521%ACC2041169620%NDTV22720113%

Hindenburg-Adani Row: The story so far

US-based investment research firm Hindenburg on January 24 accused Adani of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme” in “the largest con in corporate history”. Adani artificially boosted the share prices of its units by funnelling money into the stocks through offshore tax havens, the shirt-seller’s document said. The group benefited from what it called a “decades-long pattern” of government leniency, and that “investors, journalists, citizens, and even politicians have been afraid to speak out for fear of reprisal”, Hindenburg alleged.

In response to the scathing report, Adani group released a 413-page reply rejecting the claims as a “maliciously mischievous” reputational attack. “It is tremendously concerning that the statements of an entity sitting thousands of miles away, with no credibility or ethics has caused a serious and unprecedented adverse impact on our investors,” the Adani Group said. As Adani group stocks continued hitting new lows in the aftermath of the Hindenburg report, Gautam Adani reassured investors last week saying, “fundamentals of our company are very strong, our balance sheet is healthy and assets robust”. “These allegations are baseless,” he told India Today television on Friday.

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May 29, 2023
Petrol and Diesel Rate Today, 10 February: Fuel prices steady; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad:Fuel prices continued to stagnate on Friday, 10 February 2023, keeping costs steady for about eight months now. In Delhi, petrol is priced at Rs 96.72, while diesel in the National Capital is retailing at Rs 89.62 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre, and diesel is selling at Rs 94.27 per litre. The prices of petrol and diesel change state by state, depending upon various criteria such as Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, local taxes, etc. The last country-wide change in fuel rates was on 21 May last year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel.

Since the cut of excise duty by the central government in May 2022, some states have also reduced VAT prices on fuels, while some have imposed cess on petrol and diesel. The Punjab government decided to impose a cess of 90 paise per litre on petrol and diesel in a meeting of the state cabinet. Kerala Finance Minister KN Balagopal also announced a cess on petrol, diesel and liquor in the second full budget of the LDF government. A social security cess of Rs 2 per litre will be slapped on petrol and diesel.

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise their prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and forex rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel costs are implemented from 6 am every day. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently asked OMCs to cut the retail prices of petrol and diesel if the crude oil prices in the international market come down and also if OMCs under recovery come down. OMCs incurred a loss of Rs 21,200 crore on account of selling petrol and diesel below the cost price.

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May 25, 2023
Petrol and Diesel Rate Today, 22 February: Fuel prices unchanged; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad: Fuel prices continued to stagnate on Wednesday, 22 February 2023, keeping costs steady for about eight months now. In Delhi, petrol is priced at Rs 96.72, while diesel in the National Capital is retailing at Rs 89.62 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre, and diesel is selling at Rs 94.27 per litre. The prices of petrol and diesel change state by state, depending upon various criteria such as Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, local taxes, etc. The last country-wide change in fuel rates was on 21 May last year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel.

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Chennai: Petrol rate: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.24 per litreKolkata: Petrol rate today: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 92.76 per litreBengaluru: Petrol rate: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 87.89 per litreLucknow: Petrol rate: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.76 per litreNoida: Petrol rate: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.96 per litreGurugram: Petrol rate: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 90.05 per litreChandigarh: Petrol rate: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 84.26 per litreMumbai: Petrol rate: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.27 per litreDelhi: Petrol rate: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.62 per litre

Oil prices slipped in a volatile session as persistent concerns about global economic growth outweighed supply curbs and prompted investors to take profit on the previous day’s gains. Brent crude settled 1.2% lower at $83.05 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for March, fell 0.2% to $76.16 per barrel. The second-month contract slipped 0.38% to $76.16 a barrel.

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise their prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and forex rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel costs are implemented from 6 am every day. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently asked OMCs to cut the retail prices of petrol and diesel if the crude oil prices in the international market come down and also if OMCs under recovery come down. OMCs incurred a loss of Rs 21,200 crore on account of selling petrol and diesel below the cost price.

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