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Sep 14, 2023
Dalal Street sell-off may continue, use sell-on-rise strategy; These trades could help investors pocket gains

By Rohan Patil

The Nifty 50 was trading in a flag pattern formation for the last two weeks and formed lower band support at 16900 levels on the daily time frame. The prices on May 4 witnessed a massive sell-off and the index closed below 16900 levels given a breakdown of the bearish flag pattern and further that prices continued to close below its trend line resistance. This week Nifty closed below its 50-week exponential moving average and drift 4 per cent down from its previous week’s close. A 4 per cent weekly close is a massive sell-off which we don’t see often and such type of selling requires weak global clues and a strong news impact. Last week both RBI and FED raise the repo rate by 40 & 50 basis points which impacted the market negatively.

Nifty is continuing to settle below its trend line resistance and below its (21, 50 & 100) day exponential moving averages. All this bearish set-up is indicating sell on the rise strategy for the time being. A sharp over-sold bounce cannot be ruled at the start of the week. The immediate support for the Nifty is placed near 16100 levels and below that the gate is wide open towards 15900 levels. The resistance for the Nifty is capped near 16800 levels.

Bank Nifty support at 34000

Bank Nifty, since April 5, is trading within a lower high lower low formation on the daily chart and on May 6, prices witnessed an upward rising trend line on the daily interval. Same like the Nifty the banking index too drifted 4 per cent on the weekly closing basis indicating a sharp selloff week for the Indian indices. The market is in a dilemma that in an arising interest rate scenario, a more hawkish stance by the RBI going ahead could hurt growth.

After facing strong resistance at the moving average cluster which is placed at 36400 levels prices witnessed a strong reversal on the negative side and closed convincingly below its averages on the daily time frame. The majority of the indicator and oscillator as turned bearish on both daily and weekly charts which indicate a further selling pressure can be seen in the market.

The immediate support for the Bank Nifty is placed near 34000 levels and the upper band of the index is capped at 36000 levels if the banking index is closed below the said levels then the downside for the prices is open till 33500 levels.

ABB: BUYTarget: Rs 2400 | Stop Loss: Rs 2160Return 06.50%

For the past three months, prices have formed a basing formation and in classic technical terms, the stock has formed a bullish inverted head & shoulder pattern on the daily interval.

On May 6, prices have given a decisive breakout above their neckline resistance which is also a breakout of inverted head & shoulder pattern at 2254 levels. The breakout was followed by an above-average volume and prices successfully closed above its 21- day exponential moving average on the daily time frame.

The counter is currently outperforming the Nifty on an absolute basis. The majority of indicators and oscillators are also in bullish range shift mode and reading above their line of polarity.

Mindtree: SELLTarget: Rs 3150 | Stop Loss: Rs 3508Return 06.50%

MINDTREE is trading in a lower high lower low formation which clearly indicates a bearish structure for the counter. The prices have recently broken their horizontal trend line support on the weekly as well as the daily chart.

The recent back to back red candles on the weekly chart has given a breakdown below its 50- week exponential moving average on the weekly interval. We have also observed a gradual increase in the volumes in the last couple of weeks during the breakdown.

We are expecting a stock to continue its downward trend for a few more sessions as an indicator on the daily chart has still left some room on the lower side.

(Rohan Patil is a technical analyst at Bonanza Portfolio. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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Sep 12, 2023
Share market crash: Why Nifty, Sensex are falling today? Bank Nifty tanks over 1%, Nifty IT falls 200 pts

Domestic equity indices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday, as the market sentiment remained negative, fearing further US Fed rate hikes. The NSE Nifty 50 tanked 184.55 pts or 1.04% to 17,642.15 and the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 603 pts or 1% to 60,069. All the broader market and sectoral indices were trading in red, except Nifty Pharma. Bank Nifty plunged 474.20 pts or 1.17% to 40,199.40 while Nifty IT sank 218 pts or 0.71% to 30,728.60. Here are the reasons why the Nifty and Sensex are falling today.

US equity market trends impacting domestic equity markets

US equity indices ended overnight session broadly lower with Dow Jones Industrial Average tanking 697.01 pts or 2.06% to 33,129.59, tech-heavy Nasdaq sank 294.97 pts or 2.50% to 11,492.30 and S&P 500 plunged 81.75 pts or 2% to 3,997.34. “The US macro data continues to dictate equity markets globally. The US markets reacted sharply negatively to the series of economic data indicating that the process of disinflation is slow and, therefore, the Fed will have to continue raising rates longer than expected earlier. This pushed up the 10-year bond yield sharply to 3.95% and stocks fell sharply. These negative US equity market trends are impacting equity markets everywhere and India cannot be an exception to this trend at least in the near term,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Corporate earnings below analysts’ expectations

“India Inc.’s profitability moderated in 3QFY23. Corporate earnings were below our expectations during the quarter dragged by commodities while financials and autos held the fort. The broad-based slowdown in consumption, both staples and discretionary, also hit corporate earnings. The spread of earnings has been decent with 57% of our universe either meeting or exceeding our profit expectations,” said analysts at Motilal Oswal.

Investors keenly eyeing RBI MPC and FOMC minutes

Investors are waiting for RBI MPC and FOMC minutes which will be published later today. “Underpinned by inflationary concerns, the market is keenly eyeing the US fed meeting minutes, scheduled to be released today, for hints on further monetary policy tightening.”

Nifty 17580 level may offer a pause

“With oscillators approaching oversold territory, our downside marker of 17750 that has held so far may be expected to attract bargain buying, but a vertical bounce back is less expected. In the event of a downside break, we may expect 17580 to offer a pause, with the technical construct not yet providing for a collapse to 17300 and beyond,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

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Sep 3, 2023
F&O expiry outlook: High volatility in Nifty on cards in May series, avoid aggressive longs; support at 17000

By Ruchit Jain

The April series started on an optimistic note wherein NSE Nifty 50 index rallied and reclaimed the 18000 mark at the start of the series. However, we then witnessed unwinding of positions in indices which led to a correction and the index corrected to breach below 17000 level. Although the Nifty 50 traded in a broad range in this expiry, it ended with a loss of over a per cent compared to March series close.

This data does not sound optimistic and as they have been selling in the cash segment too, this would not be supportive for our markets. On the other hand, the same ratio for retail clients stands at 60%. This indicates that retail investors are bullish while FIIs are bearish. For the coming series, the open interest data scattered at the start of the series, however, open interest concentration is seen at 17500 call and 17000 put options.

India Vix is trading below the level of 20 which is in its comfort zone. However, we expect higher volatility in the May series as well and hence, traders are advised to keep a tab on the volatility index.

The above data does not pose a positive picture for the market. Hence, traders are advised to avoid aggressive longs until we see fresh long formations at the start of the new series. It would be crucial to see how fresh positions are formed at the start of new series, and especially how FIIs build new positions in the next few sessions. Looking at the current data, we advise that in case of pullback towards 17400-17500, one should look to lighten up long positions. On the flipside, 17000 followed by 16800 are the immediate supports and if these supports are breached, then we could see a corrective phase in the near term.

(Ruchit Jain is the Lead – Research at 5paisa.com. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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Sep 3, 2023
Ambuja, ACC dropped from BSE 100 ESG

Adani Group-controlled Ambuja Cements and ACC will be dropped from S&P BSE 100 ESG Index from February 22, according to a statement issued by Asia Index on Friday. Ambuja Cements and ACC have been added to the Media and Stakeholder Analysis (MSA) list.

Based on the S&P BSE 100 ESG Index methodology, the index committee reviews constituents flagged under the MSA to evaluate their continuity within the index. In this case, the committee has decided to drop these stocks from the S&P BSE 100 ESG Index.

Ambuja Cements closed Friday’s session at Rs 353.30, with a gain of 1.52%. At present, its market capitalisation is Rs 70,153 crore. The stock declined 2.16% during the week. ACC, on the other hand, closed flat at Rs 1,839.85, down 0.08%.

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Sep 2, 2023
Why Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 fell 2% overnight, wiping off millions in wealth

Wall Street tumbled sharply overnight on Wednesday, as all three major indexes ended lower, led by selloffs in technology, consumer discretionary, industrials and financial stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.06%, the S&P 500 lost 2.01% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5% as sentiments soured on S&P Global’s PMI data. Business activity in the U.S. rebounded sharply, touching an eight-month high, which sent fears of further rate hikes soaring.

S&P Global Services PMI

The S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 50.2, rising sharply from 46.8 in the previous month. A print above 50 is seen as a positive indicator, and February’s numbers clocked in as the highest in eight-months. Service sector firms in America saw a growth while manufacturing reported a slower decrease in output.

Wall Street believed the hot services sector will further add onto the US Federal Reserve’s woes, as their new metric, ‘core PCE services less housing’ or ‘supercore inflation’ measures the rate of inflation in the country resulting from the services sector. The rise in wages, cost of labor and lower unemployment engendered growth in the sector, lead to fears of a hawkish Fed and further rate hikes.

Wall Street Sentiment

As a result of this data, the U.S. indices posted the worst day decline of 2023. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended in red with a loss of more than 2 percent, 2.00% and 2.50% respectively, while Dow Jones declined 2.06%. Benchmark 10-year note yields jumped to the highest since Nov. 10 and were at 3.9584%. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes remained deeply inverted at minus 78 basis points, indicating heightened concerns over an impending recession, according to Reuters. Oil prices and gold prices slipped in a volatile session on profit booking, while the dollar index gained, showing the strengthening of the U.S. economy.

Market sentiment over the course of the previous week was bearish, but it further dampened on the data. Fed officials signaled that the U.S. central bank was likely to continue raising rates than was previously estimated. The market was bearish after Fed officials signaled last week that the U.S. central bank was likely to keep raising interest rates for longer than was previously forecast in its bid to tame inflation. Traders are eyeing the minutes of the Fed’s meeting to garner a further insight into the officials’ monetary policy views.

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Sep 1, 2023
Adani Group firms end on mixed note; Adani Wilmar climbs 5 pc

Shares of Adani Group firms ended on a mixed note on Thursday after rallying in the morning trade amid volatile trend in the broader market.

Adani Wilmar stock climbed 5 per cent, NDTV rallied 4.99 per cent, Adani Power jumped 4.97 per cent, Adani Ports advanced 1.45 per cent, Adani Enterprises ended 1 per cent higher and Ambuja Cements advanced 0.99 per cent on the BSE.

In the broader market, the BSE Sensex ended marginally higher by 44.42 points or 0.07 per cent at 61,319.51.

Most of the Adani Group stocks had ended higher on Wednesday.

Billionaire Gautam Adani’s embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is “very healthy” and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the group despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller.

Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance.

“Our balance sheet is very healthy. We have industry-leading development capabilities, strong corporate governance, secure assets and strong cash flows,” Singh said.

The group has been under pressure since the Hindenburg Research on January 24 accused it of accounting fraud and stock manipulation, allegations that the conglomerate has denied as “malicious”, “baseless” and a “calculated attack on India”.

Listed companies of the group have lost over USD 125 billion in market value in three weeks.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings on Thursday placed its ESG evaluation for Adani Transmission Ltd (ATL) ‘under review’ following the US short-seller raising governance issues at the group.

When monitoring environment, social and governance (ESG) evaluations, S&P uses the term ‘under review’ (and the label ‘UR’) to identify certain ESG Evaluations as being potentially affected by changing events.

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Aug 31, 2023
Tawi Mizoram Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

Tawi MZ Assembly Election 2023 Details: The election for Tawi Assembly Constituency in Mizoram will be held on November 7 this year. The final date of voting and result were known after the formal announcement by the Election Commission of India. Here are the important details of the Tawi Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that you should know.

Tawi Constituency Mizoram Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

November 7 is the date of voting for the Tawi Assembly Constituency Election 2023 as announced by the Election Commission of India.

Tawi Constituency Mizoram Election 2023: Candidates List

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and other political parties in the state will announce their candidates for the Tawi Assembly Constituency Election 2023 after the announcement of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Why Tawi Constituency Assembly Election 2023 is Important

Tawi is a state Assembly/Vidhan Sabha constituency in the state of Mizoram and is part of the Tawi Lok Sabha/Parliamentary constituency. Tawi falls in the Tawi district of Mizoram and is categorised as an urban seat.

Tawi Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2018

R Lalzirliana of the Mizo National Front was the winning candidate from the Tawi constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2018, securing 4940 votes while 4756 votes were polled in favour of R Lalthatluanga of the Independent. The margin of victory was 184 votes.

2018 Tawi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesR LalzirlianaMizo National Front4940

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) R Lalzirliana Mizo National Front 4940 (37.35%) R Lalthatluanga Independent 4756 (35.96%) Rosiamngheta Indian National Congress 2630 (19.89%) Prof J V Hluna Bharatiya Janata Party 714 (5.4%) H Lalremsiama Peoples Representation For Identity And Status Of Mizoram Party 97 (0.73%) Lalzenghaki Independent 49 (0.37%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 39 (0.29%)

Tawi Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2013

R Lalzirliana of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Tawi constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2013, securing 5757 votes while 4810 votes were polled in favour of Lalmalsawmi of the Mizo National Front. The margin of victory was 947 votes.

2013 Tawi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesR LalzirlianaIndian National Congress5757

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) R Lalzirliana Indian National Congress 5757 (45.42%) Lalmalsawmi Mizo National Front 4810 (37.95%) R Lalthatluanga Zoram Nationalist Party 2023 (15.96%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 84 (0.66%)

Tawi Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2008

R Lalzirliana of the INC was the winning candidate from the Tawi constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2008, securing 4710 votes while 3499 votes were polled in favour of Lalchhandama Ralte of the MNF. The margin of victory was 1211 votes.

2008 Tawi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesR LalzirlianaINC4710

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) R Lalzirliana INC 4710 (41.29%) Lalchhandama Ralte MNF 3499 (30.67%) Dr Kenneth Chawngliana MPC 3127 (27.41%) Biakngheta LJP 71 (0.62%)

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Aug 29, 2023
Stocks climb, U.S. yields fall on central bank pause hopes

A gauge of global stocks rallied and U.S. Treasury yields mostly fell on Thursday, as policy announcements from a string of central banks fueled optimism that interest rate hike cycles may be nearing an end.After the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points (bps), as was widely expected, on Wednesday, markets rallied following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging the “disinflationary” process may have begun.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) hiked by 50 basis points each on Thursday, with the BoE signaling the tide was turning against inflation and the ECB indicating at least one more hike was on the horizon.On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed, with the S&P 500 touching its highest intraday level since Aug. 26 and the Nasdaq hitting its highest since Sept. 12, getting an additional boost from a 24.24% surge in Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc following its quarterly results and $40 billion buyback announcment.

After the closing bell, investors will see earnings from heavyweights Apple Inc and Amazon.com IncEuropean stocks rallied, with the STOXX 600 poised for its biggest one-day percentage gain in a month after hitting its highest intraday level since late April.The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.37% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.21%.Benchmark 10-year notes were down 4 basis points to 3.358%, from 3.398% late on Wednesday.

The dollar bounced, however, from its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly a month on Wednesday, while the euro also weakened following the ECB announcement.The dollar index rose 0.594%, with the euro down 0.59% to $1.0924.The Japanese yen strengthened 0.44% versus the greenback at 128.39 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2269, down 0.86% on the day.In commodities, oil prices slipped, with U.S. crude recently falling 0.69% to $75.88 per barrel and Brent at $82.23, down 0.74% on the day.

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Aug 29, 2023
BJP making yet another laughable attempt to destabilise Siddaramaiah-led Karnataka govt, alleges Congress

The Congress on Saturday accused the Karnataka BJP of attempting to destabilise its government in the southern state, where it came to power in the May elections winning a massive mandate ousting the saffron party.

Congress general secretary organization, K C Venugopal, shared a media report which quoted first-time Congress MLA Ravikumar Gowda (Ganiga) as saying that a team of BJP leaders is approaching lawmakers with offers to defect, hit out at the BJP saying that the saffron party was making yet another “laughable attempt” to destabilise Karnataka government.

“Under the supervision of their masters in Delhi, Karnataka BJP is making yet another laughable attempt of destabilising our Karnataka government,” Venugopal alleged.

“But our INC MLAs are die hard loyalists and this government is receiving widespread praise for its speedy delivery of Guarantees. Maybe they should find a LOP and party president first?” Venugopal said.

A party without a leader or an agenda is resorting to their old habit of undoing the people’s mandate.Under the supervision of their masters in Delhi, Karnataka BJP is making yet another laughable attempt of destabilising our Karnataka government. But our INC MLAs are die…

— K C Venugopal (@kcvenugopalmp) October 28, 2023

On Friday, Gowda alleged that a team which was behind the fall of the Congress-JD(S) coalition government in 2019, was now working to lure Congress legislators with allurements like Rs 50 crore and a ministerial post, and four legislators have already been contacted, according to media reports.

Gowda, who won the Mandya Assembly seat in the May elections, also added that there was evidence about all of it and will be revealed soon.

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Aug 29, 2023
Rupee falls 15 paise to close at 82.73 against US dollar

The rupee fell by 15 paise to close at 82.73 (provisional) against the US currency on Monday, weighed down by gains in the greenback in the overseas markets and a muted trend in domestic equities.

Firm crude oil prices further dented investor sentiments, forex traders said.

In the previous session on Friday, the rupee settled at 82.58 against the dollar.

According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, the Indian rupee depreciated on a weak tone in Asian markets and a strong dollar.

Traders also pared their positions ahead of CPI data which is expected a tad higher from the previous month’s reading. However, a weak start to crude oil on Monday cushioned the downside.

Also read: Markets Wrap – Mon, 13 Feb ‘23: Stocks fall, rupee depreciates; Asia, Europe markets, Gold, Crude, Crypto updates

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias amid risk aversion in global markets and rising US dollar. Sustained outflows by foreign investors may also mount downside pressure on the domestic currency,” Choudhary said.

Traders may remain cautious ahead of inflation data from India today and US tomorrow. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 82.20 to Rs 83.30, Choudhary added.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15 per cent higher at 103.78.

“Dollar strengthened on risk aversion in global markets amid expectations of a hawkish Fed and economic slowdown in the UK,” Choudhary said.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures declined 1.19 per cent to USD 85.36 per barrel.

Also read: Nykaa Q3 results: Net profit falls 68% on-year to Rs 9.2 crore as expenses jump faster than revenue

The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 250.86 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 60,431.84, while the broader NSE Nifty declined 85.60 points or 0.48 per cent to 17,770.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,458.02 crore, according to exchange data.

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