Nov 18, 2023
Markets Wrap – Tue, 21 Feb ‘23: Nifty, Sensex dip, rupee depreciates; Asia, US markets, Gold, Crude updates

Domestic benchmark equity indices ended Tuesday’s volatile session the negative territory. The 30-share BSE Sensex settled below 60,700 and NSE Nifty 50 concluded below 17850, today as well. The top gainers on the Nifty 50 were NTPC (up 3.25%), Britannia (up 1.17%), Tata Steel (up 0.98%), Reliance Industries Ltd (up 0.86%) and Power Grid (up 0.83%) while Adani Enterprises (down 3.55%), Apollo Hospital (down 2.32%), Coal India (down 1.72%), Bajaj Auto(down 1.71%) and Tata Motors (down 1.53%) were the losers.

US Markets

The US markets remained closed on Monday. On Friday, most of the US indices ended in the red territory with tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 69.56 pts or 0.56% to 11,787.27, S&P 500 dipping 11.32 or 0.28% to 4,079.09 while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 129.84 pts or 0.39% to 33,826.69.

Asian Markets

Asian markets closed in the mixed territory on Tuesday. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.49%, South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.16% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.21%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.71%.

Rupee movement

The Indian rupee fell marginally by 0.08% to 82.79 against the US dollar at 3:52 PM (IST).

Gold, Silver

Gold futures on the multi-commodity exchange for April delivery were trading at Rs 56,100.00, down 113 points or 0.20% while Silver futures for March delivery fell 170 points or 0.26% to Rs 65,579.00.

Crude oil

WTI Crude futures for March delivery were up 0.54% at $76.75 while Brent Crude futures for March delivery were trading 0.39% lower at $83.74 at 3:55 PM (IST).

More Details
Nov 18, 2023
Adani Group stock routed again, after MSCI reviews free float, Adani Enterprises tanks 20%

The rout in Adani Group stocks resumed on Thursday after Wednesday’s rise, as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) said that some Adani group stocks should no longer be designated as free float after investors raised concerns over the eligibility of the Adani companies for some of its indexes. MSCI announced that any changes to the free float and market capitalisation of Adani Group stocks, which will impact the calculation of these figures, will be implemented and announced as part of its February index review, set to be released today. Following the news, Adani group flagship company Adani Enterprises’ share price witnessed a slump of 20%.

Nine out of ten Adani Group firms were trading in the negative territory. Adani Enterprises stock plunged 20%, its lower price band on the NSE, before recovering slightly. The stock was last trading at Rs 1,969, down 9% on NSE. The market capitalisation of the flagship company declined to Rs 2.38 lakh crore in initial trade. Meanwhile, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shares plunged 5.59% to Rs 565.95. Along similar lines, Adani Transmission Adani Green Energy and Adani Total Gas fell 5% each in initial trade on the bourses.

However, the group stocks have lost around Rs 8.7 lakh crore or about 45% of their combined market valuation since 24 January, when the US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research came out with its scathing report about the Gautam Adani-led conglomerate. Adani Group, on Monday, said the promoters will pre-pay $1,114 million for the release of pledged shares of its firms ahead of the maturity in September 2024. These shares belong to Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Adani Green Energy and Adani Transmission.

More Details
Nov 10, 2023
Markets Wrap – Thu, 2 Feb ‘23: Stocks end mixed, rupee falls; Global markets, Gold, Crude, Crypto updates

Domestic indices concluded Thursday’s volatile session on a mixed note. The BSE Sensex closed in green, above 59,900 while NSE Nifty 50 ended in red, below 17,650.The top gainers of the BSE Sensex were ITC (up 4.72%), IndusInd Bank (up 3.78%), Hindustan Unilever Ltd (up 2.38%), Infosys (up 1.97%) and Wipro (up 1.79%) while Bajaj Finserv (down 5.65%), State Bank of India (down 4.80%), IndusInd Bank (down 3.88%), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 1.91%) and Sun Pharma (down 1.75%) were the losers.

Asian Markets

Asian markets closed higher on Wednesday. China’s Shanghai Composite index rose 29.90 pts or 0.90% settling at 3,284.92, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 19.77 pts or 0.07% higher at 27,346.88 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 229.85 pts or 1.05% at 22,072.18.

European Markets

European markets were trading in green. England’s FTSE100 was trading at 7,779.27, up 18.16 points or 0.13% at 3:15 PM (IST). Europe’s Euronext100 was up 8.66 points or 0.65% at 1,336.53. France’s CAC was trading 36.91 points or 0.52% higher at 7,114.02. Germany’s DAX was up 197.32 points or 1.30% at 15,378.06.

US Markets

The US equity market ended marginally in the green on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve slowed the rate hike pace, increasing the key interest rate by 25 basis points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose marginally by 6.92 pts or 0.02% to 34,092.96, S&P 500 climbed 42.61 pts or 1.05% to 4,119.21 and Nasdaq closed 231.77 pts or 2% lower at 11,816.32.

Rupee movement

The Indian rupee depreciated 0.28% to 82.15 against the US dollar at 3:15 PM (IST).

Gold, Silver

Gold futures on the multi-commodity exchange for April delivery were trading at Rs 58,783.00 up 898 points or 1.55% while Silver futures for March delivery were up 1859 points or 2.66% at Rs 71,700.00 at 3:15 PM (IST).

Crude oil

WTI Crude futures for February delivery were up 0.04% at $76.44 while Brent Crude futures for March delivery were trading 0.12% lower at $82.74 at 3:20 PM (IST).

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC) at 3:20 PM (IST) was trading at $23,808.72, up by 3.52% in the last 24 hours. Its total market cap is $459,074,016,394. Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,669.34, up by 6.06% in the last 24 hours. It has a total market cap of $204,283,158,965.

More Details
Nov 6, 2023
Share Market Highlights: Nifty settles above 18000, Sensex gains 240 pts; Bank Nifty rises 80 pts, IT ends over 1% up

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Highlights: Indices ended Wednesday’s session in the green territory. The BSE Sensex rose 242.83 pts or 0.40% to 61,275.09  and NSE Nifty 50 jumped 86.00 pts  or 0.48% to 18,015.85. The top gainers of the Nifty 50 were Tech Mahindra, Apollo Hospital, Eicher Motor, Reliance and Bajaj Finserv while the losers were Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma, ONGS and Larsent & Toubro.

Live Updates

Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News Highlights Wednesday 15 February

16:35 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 17900 to act as key support zone for Nifty

“Markets were slightly volatile in early trades but recovered in late trades to end with steady gains as investors mostly resorted to selective buying. Traders are taking a cautious approach currently due to uncertainty in global markets and the trend could continue for some more time. Technically, post the 17900 breakout the market is comfortably trading above 17850, which is largely positive. The Nifty has also formed a bullish candle and a higher bottom formation on intraday charts which supports further uptrend from the current levels. For the trend following traders, 17900 would act as a key support zone, above which the index could move up to 18100-18150. On the flip side, below 17900, bulls may prefer to exit out from the trading long position.” – Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.

16:34 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Recovery in IT, auto sectors contributed to positive finish

“The US inflation, though it slowed down compared to the previous month, came in higher than expected at 6.4% YoY. Higher inflation, combined with a strong labour market, has raised concerns that the Fed will remain hawkish for an extended period. Despite a sluggish start in the domestic market, recovery in the IT and auto sectors contributed to a positive finish. A reversal in the FII pattern to net buying has also helped maintain optimism in the domestic market.” – Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

16:32 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Bulls are back in action

“Finally, the Frontline Index has surpassed the high of the big Budget Day candle and closed just above the psychological 18,000 mark. Despite the weak start Nifty managed to recover from its losses and witnessed a triangle pattern breakout in the lower time frame (30 mins). Two consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart indicate bulls are back in action and the index also closed above its 9 & 21 EMA which is positive for the short term. The positive takeaway was that the Nifty technical landscape looked bullish and the benchmark now should aim to sustain above the 18,000 mark. The immediate cap for the index is seen at 18,200 levels and 17,900 will act as instant support for tomorrow’s weekly expiry day.” – Rohan Patil, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

16:31 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Bank Nifty remains in buy-on-dip mode

“BANK NIFTY index witnessed buying from the lower level and the bulls managed to hold the support of 41,400. The index on the upside immediately faces a hurdle at 42,000 where the highest open interest is built up on the call side. The index remains in a buy-on-dip mode and once surpasses the level of 42,000 will witness a sharp short covering towards the 43,000-43,500 levels.” – Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

16:30 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty trend looks positive for near term

“Nifty has given a falling channel breakout on the daily timeframe, suggesting a bullish reversal of the price trend. The trend looks positive now for the near term, with the 14 DMA sitting below price. The momentum indicator RSI is in support of the price trend, with a current reading above 50. Over the near term, the index may move up towards 18350–18400. On the lower end, support is placed at 17950.” – Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

16:29 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty likely to gather speed on the upside

“The Nifty has managed to break above the 17972 (high of budget day) which is a bullish sign. With the daily and hourly momentum indicators having a positive crossover, the upmove is likely to gather speed on the upside. Expansion of hourly Bollinger bands and prices moving along the upper band suggests that the positive momentum is likely to continue. On the way up the Nifty is likely to target the zone of 18100 – 18120 which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (18120) of the December, 2021 to February2022 decline. Thus, all parameters are suggesting towards further upside in the Index.” – Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

15:47 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Top gainers/losers

The top gainers of the Nifty 50 were Tech Mahindra, Apollo Hospital, Eicher Motor, Reliance and Bajaj Finserv while the losers were Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma, ONGS and Larsent & Toubro,

15:46 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty, Sensex settle in green

The BSE Sensex rose 242.83 pts or 0.40% to 61,275.09  and NSE Nifty 50 jumped 86.00 pts  or 0.48% to 18,015.85.

14:02 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 IT index beats Nifty 50 YTD; Why is it rising?

The Nifty IT index has risen over 6% year to date compared to a 14% surge in tech-heavy Nasdaq. In 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the shift towards remote work and digitisation, leading to an increase in demand for IT products and services, taking the Nifty IT index above 36,800. But as questions arose over the valuation of IT stocks, the index fell below 26,200 in the later half of 2022. But, this year, IT has outperformed the Nifty 50 YTD, owing to better than expected financial results and the recent surge can be due to the Adani-Hindenburg saga.

Read full story

13:31 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 ITC, Tata Steel among volume toppers

Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, ITC, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank are among the volume toppers on the BSE Sensex-30 index.

13:30 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 NSE 52-week lows

Alternatively, 129 stocks including Bharat Rasayan, Bharat Rasayan, BASF India, Balaji Amines, Venky’s (India), Bata India, Polyplex Corporation, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission are at 52 week lows.

13:30 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 NSE 52-week highs

On the NSE Nifty, 25 stocks hit their 52 week highs including Siemens, APL Apollo Tubes, H.G. Infra Engineering, Cigniti Technologies, Finolex Cables, Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities, Linc among others.

13:30 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 NSE to allow trade of WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas contracts

National Stock Exchange (NSE), has signed a data licensing agreement with CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, allowing NSE to list, trade and settle rupee denominated NYMEX WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas (Henry Hub) derivatives contracts for Indian market participants.

13:29 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 BSE 52-week lows

On the flip side, 197 stocks fell to their 52 week lows. Venky’s (India), Uflex, Vipul Organics, Stovec Industries, TCNS Clothing, Thyrocare Technologies, TV Today Network, Shri Bajrang Alliance, Shilpa Medicare, Sambandam Spinning Mills, Sahyadri Industries, Ramco Systems, Rajapalayam Mills, Polyplex Corporation, Loyal Textile Mills, Matrimony.com, Mangalam Organics, KSE, Jindal Poly Films, Hitech Corporation, Excel Industries, Graphite India, GE Power India, EKI Energy Services, Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, Balaji Amines, Bharat Rasayan, BASF India, Adani Transmission, Alembic Pharmaceuticals and others were among these scrips.

13:28 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 BSE 52-week highs

On the BSE Sensex, 58 stocks rose to hit fresh 52 week highs. H.G. Infra Engineering, Jindal Saw, Finolex Cables, Cigniti Technologies, Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities, APL Apollo Tubes, Chaman Lal Setia Exports, Linc, KPT Industries, KCD Industries India, MPS, Praveg, Prima Plastics, Siemens, Shilchar Technologies, Taylormade Renewables, Zen Technologies and many others were among those to hit these highs.

13:28 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty top gainers/losers

On the NSE Nifty index, the top winners are Eicher Motors, Apollo Hospital, Adani Enterprises, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, with Eicher Motors up 4.64%. The biggest laggards are ONGC, Hindustan Unilever, Britannia, HDFC and Sun Pharma, with ONGC down 1.35%.

13:27 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 RIL, Adani Enterprises among most active equities

Reliance Industries, Adani Enterprises, Apollo Hospital, HDFC Bank and Eicher Motors are the most active Nifty 50 stocks intraday.

09:27 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Top gainers/losers

The top gainers on Sensex were Reliance Industries Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Maruti while the top losers were ITC, Hindustan Unilever, TCS, Larsen & Toubro and Sun Pharma.

09:26 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty, Sensex open in red

The BSE Sensex fell 205.27 points or 0.34% to 60,826.99 and NSE Nifty 50 dipped 57.90 pts or 0.32% to 17,871.95.

09:22 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 FII DII data

Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth a net Rs 1305.3 crore while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased shares worth a net Rs 204.79 crore on Tuesday, February 14, 2023, according to the data available on NSE. For the month till February 14, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 2,786.52 crore while DIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 7,179.53 crore. In the month of January, FIIs sold shares worth a net of Rs 41,464.73 crore while DIIs purchased equities worth a net of Rs 33,411.85 crore.

Read full story

08:59 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 NSE FO ban: Indiabulls Housing Finance, PNB and others under ban today

BHEL, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Ambuja Cements and Punjab National Bank (PNB) are the stocks/securities placed on the National Stock Exchange’s futures and options (F&O) ban for trade on Wednesday, February 15. According to the NSE, the stocks mentioned above are prohibited in the F&O sector because they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Stocks under ban today

08:40 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty to test upper end (18100) of the downward sloping channel

“The Nifty opened on a positive note and continued to inch higher throughout the day to close around the highs for the day. It closed with gains of ~159 points. On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has managed to close above the immediate hurdle zone of 17850 – 17900 which takes the bulls in a position of advantage. The hourly Bollinger bands have begun to expand indicating expansion in volatility and with prices trading along the upper band suggest that the positive momentum is likely to continue. The daily momentum indicator has a positive crossover which is a buy signal. Thus both price and momentum indicators is suggesting further upside in the Index. On the upside, we expect the Nifty to test the upper end (18100) of the downward sloping channel from short term perspective.” – Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

08:37 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Nifty remains in buy mode

“The Nifty index witnessed strong buying momentum from the lower level and it surpassed the hurdle of 17900 on a closing basis. The index remains in a buy mode as long as it holds the support of 17700 on the downside. The momentum oscillator are in the strong buying zone which confirms the strength.” – Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

08:36 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Bank Nifty’s next hurdle seen at 42000

“The Bank Nifty index managed to hold the support of 41000 where the huggers open interest is built up on the put side. The index has surpassed the immediate hurdle of 41500 which had the highest open interest build up on the call side. The index next hurdle is at 42000 and once surpassed will witness sharp short covering towards 43000-43500 levels.” – Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

08:35 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 US stocky inflation to keep Fed and global central bankers on their toes

“USA reported its CPI number at 6.4% for the month of January which came in higher than the expected 6.2%. The inflation in the USA has been now declining for 8 months in a row but the pace of decline is not very encouraging. The core inflation also remains sticky at 5.6% vs 5.7% in previous months. The Fed in its latest meet had slowed the pace of rate hike to 25 bps but now with USA CPI inflation coming in higher than expected and the job market remaining strong, a stronger rate hike in the upcoming meet can’t be ruled out. Although the latest USA CPI print has not deteriorated but the sticky nature of it would keep the Fed and global central bankers on their toes.” – Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities.

08:20 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 US markets conclude mixed

The US markets concluded the overnight session mostly in red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 156.66 pts or 0.46% to 34,089.27, S&P 500 dropped 1.16 pts or 0.03% to 4,136.13 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 68.36 pts or 0.57% higher at 11,960.15.

08:19 (IST) 15 Feb 2023 Asian markets trade in red

Asian markets were trading lower in early morning trade with China’s Shanghai Composite index falling 8.63 pts or 0.26% to 3,284.65, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 346.41 pts or 1.64% to 20,767.06, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 42.35 pts or 0.16% to 27,559.95 and South Korea’s KOSPI sank 23.55 pts or 0.96% to 2,442.09.

More Details
Nov 5, 2023
Google’s secret is out: Company spent this much to remain default search engine on Apple, Samsung, other devices

The ongoing US vs Google trial has revealed many secrets not known to the public. For instance, it had been a big guess about how much Google pays Apple to remain the default search engine on Safari, iMac, iPhones, and more. The amount, as per The New York Times report came around USD 18 billion. Now, more details have been disclosed.

As per a report by The Verge, Google accepted paying a huge USD 26.3 billion in 2021 to remain the default search engine on multiple platforms including phones and browsers. This feels true for many reasons, say when was the last time you picked up a smartphone to search about something and it took you to a search engine other than Google?

Coming back to Google’s USD 18 billion pay to Apple where the most money of Google goes: it not only continues to remain the default search engine but also prevented Apple from focusing on creating one for itself.

Is spending USD 26.3 billion worth the hassle?

In short, yes. Google parent Alphabet Inc. recently announced in its recent earnings report that the Google Search ad business made about USD 44 billion in the last three months and approximately USD 165 billion in the last year.

Apple is just the part of game, Google cashes Mozilla, and Samsung, too

Undoubtedly, Google pays the most to Apple (about USD 18 billion in 2021), however, the deal expands to Mozilla, Samsung, and several key phone makers to be the default search engine on their devices and it could likely be due to Google has monopolistically dealt with its competitors and has remained a favourite but the market is now advancing, thanks to Bing experiment and others like You(dot)com with built-in AI capabilities.

Follow FE Tech Bytes onTwitter,Instagram,LinkedIn,Facebook.

More Details
Nov 4, 2023
Rupee settles flat at 82.54 against US dollar

The rupee pared initial losses and settled on a flat note at 82.54 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, supported by a rebound in domestic equities.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.59 against the American currency and touched a low of 82.66 and a high of 82.48 intra-day.

In the previous session on Wednesday, the rupee had appreciated 16 paise after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.36 per cent to 103.03.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 0.19 per cent to USD 85.25 per barrel.

“The Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar amid fund outflows and risk-averse sentiments. However, the loss was limited following the state-run banks’ dollar supply following inflows from the issuance of green bonds,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

Parmar further noted that the sentiment for the local unit remains weak on the expectation of the dollar outflows from one of the big corporates for repaying debt.

In the near term, spot USD-INR has support at 82.20, the 50-day simple moving average and resistance at 82.80, the recent swing high formed on February 7, Parmar added.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 142.43 points or 0.23 per cent to end at 60,806.22, while the broader NSE Nifty rose 21.75 points or 0.12 per cent to 17,893.45.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 736.82 crore, according to exchange data.

More Details
Nov 3, 2023
Even though Fed rate hikes may continue, gold still good buy for medium term; go long around 56500 level

By Bhavik Patel

Hope for a pause in interest rates from the Fed proved to be short lived. It has become clear that the Federal Reserve will make good on its commitment to continue rate hikes and sustain those higher levels throughout this entire year. Market continued to act under the belief that since inflation is easing, the Fed might take its step off the gas and investors continued to base their decisions on the belief that the Federal Reserve would not make good on this commitment. However after the solid jobs data last Friday, there are less chances of major recession and less incentive for Fed to back down.

Another reason why we are bullish on gold, is investors looking to protect their purchasing power and hedge against growing economic uncertainty. While consumer prices have fallen from their highs seen last summer, central bank tightening has reduced the global real money supply, liquidity in the global economy. So far this year, markets have largely dismissed the idea of a recession as the labor market remains healthy.

The US Central Bank can’t sustain an interest rate above 5% as they also have to service their debt at higher interest. Current gold price is a good buy for the medium term and if we look at the long term, it is still cheap given the current economic conditions. Gold has closed below its 20-day moving average for the first time since 8th Nov 2022. The rally which was overstretched now has been corrected. RSI_14 is around 51 which suggests prices have come back to its mean average. We believe the fall might continue as in COMEX, gold has breached its support of $1860 and next support comes at $1832. Similarly in MCX, the support comes at 56,500 and below that at 55,800. So wait for gold to make its base around that level before initiating any long position.

(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

More Details
Nov 3, 2023
Gold Price Today, 16 Feb: Gold flat, dollar slips; upbeat US retail data raises fears of hawkish US Fed policy

Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forecast: Gold rate is trading flat on Thursday as a result of mixed global cues, while the silver rate is up 0.37%. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold April futures were trading at Rs 56,165 per 10 grams, up Rs 39 or 0.7%. Silver March futures were trading higher by Rs 239 at Rs 65,660 per kg on MCX.

Globally, the yellow metal prices were flat on Thursday as the US dollar pulled back. However, investors and traders remained cautious as fears of further rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve still loomed, according to Reuters. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,840.94 per ounce. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,850.20.

US CPI YoY data at the start of this week was reported better than expectations suggesting that more rate hikes could be witnessed in the coming Fed meeting. Focus today will be on the US PPI and Philly fed manufacturing index. Broader trend on COMEX could be in the range of $1820-1860 and on domestic front prices could hover in the range of Rs 56,000-56,480.

Gold to remain volatile: Rahul Kalantri, Mehta Equities

Gold and silver prices slipped again on Wednesday following strong gains in the dollar index and the US 10-year bond yields. Gold prices slipped to 9-week lows and silver prices also eased to 2.5 month lows in the international markets. The dollar index crossed 103.50 marks and the US 10-year bond yields crossed 3.80% amid anticipation of further interest rate hikes from the US Fed in the upcoming policy meetings. Upbeat US retail sales, core retail sales data and higher than expected inflation numbers could prompt the US Fed to maintain an aggressive stance by increasing interest rates to control inflation.

We expect gold and silver to remain volatile in today’s session. Gold has support at $1821-1810 while resistance is at $1846-1855. Silver has support at $21.20-21.00, while resistance is at $21.50-21.65. In INR terms gold has support at Rs 55,940-55,810, while resistance is at Rs 56,420-56,640. Silver has support at Rs 64,850-64,320, while resistance is at Rs 65,750–65,980.

More Details
Nov 3, 2023
What lies ahead for Paytm stock after Vijay Shekhar Sharma firm turns profitable; should you buy, sell, hold?

Paytm achieved profitability three quarters ahead of its guidance, causing the market sentiment regarding the payment aggregator and financial services firm to turn positive, and sending the share price soaring. The company reported a revenue of Rs 2,062 crore in Q3FY23, up 42% on-year, while the firm’s contribution profit was up 131% on-year at Rs 1,048 crore. The stock has seen a rise of 28% from Friday’s closing price, regaining the interest of traders and investors.

Paytm Stock Calls

BoFa Securities: Neutral

Target Price: Rs 730CMP: Rs 524.95Upside: 39%

Goldman Sachs: Buy

Target Price: Rs 1,150CMP: Rs 524.9Upside: 119.1%

Goldman Sachs raised its FY24/FY25 adjusted EBITDA estimates for Paytm by 30%/14% on the back of Q3FY23 results. The journey to profitability was one quarter ahead of their recently upgraded expectation. The brokerage also said they expect the profits to sustain and with strong traction in disbursals, operating leverage, and UPI reimbursement, they expect the EBITDA margin to expand. This, to Goldman Sachs, is a significant catalyst for the stock.

The current stock price, according to the company’s analysis, suggests Paytm’s current share price is already pricing in multiple headwinds, with the stock trading close to its bear-case implied value; we see risk-reward as skewed to the upside. Paytm’s valuation multiples are at a discount to global/India peers, said Goldman Sachs.

Macquarie Research: Outperform

Target Price: Rs 800CMP: Rs 588Upside: 36.1%

Macquarie Research double-upgraded the digital financial services firm from underperform to outperform as the quarter ending December’s results surprised the markets by a wide margin. “At the time of listing, profit and free cash flow were not even a part of management’s discussion. However, we see a very visible change in approach of management to deliver profit, evidenced, we believe, by the core EBITDA profitability that was reported recently,” said the research firm.

(The stock recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)

More Details
Nov 2, 2023
Poker and Investing

– By Manoj Mohan and Siddhartha Khanna

Since the late 1970s and 1980s, the bond and options markets were dominated by traders who learned their craft through experience. They believed that experience and intuition gave them the edge to make money. By the mid-1990s, the old-school grizzled traders had been replaced by a new breed of quantitative analysts, applying mathematics to the “art” of trading.

Dealing with ambiguity through probabilistic thinking

Poker teaches you to take risks and make decisions in ambiguity. It is like the cycle of a start-up condensed into two minutes. Starting a hand is like starting a company with an idea. You have no idea whether it is good or bad because you have no context of knowing what else is out there. You take a bunch of risks, you expense a bunch of capital, and sometimes you win, and sometimes you don’t. Sometimes despite the right decision, you lose and sometimes, despite the wrong decision, you win. Most often than not, you win for the correct decisions. Hence, probabilistic thinking plays a vital role in decision-making.

Being patient

As a professional poker player, one folds over 80% of the hands. In the world of intense FOMO, it is important to be selective about investing ideas. Not every idea is worth backing, and one can’t capture all the different ways of making money in the market, so it is essential to be patient and wait for the right moment and bet big when one has the odds.

“Fold and live to fold again” – Stu Ungar (Greatest poker player of all time)

“The stock market is a no-called strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything. You can wait for your pitch”- Warren Buffet (Greatest investor of all time)

Playing the long game

Another essential skill in investing and poker is looking only at long-term performance and ignoring short-term results. A poker player should not be ecstatic or disappointed with the results of one hand or a few sessions. In the short run, the role of luck is magnified, while over time, the skills will matter more. The same is the case with investing; an investor cannot be said to be successful or unsuccessful based on a few good or bad years. It is the consistent long-term performance that will matter.

Being objective

Many investors believe that if the markets have gone up in the past few months, then there is a high probability that markets will deliver negative returns in the coming months. But this is a fallacy known as Gambler’s/Monte Carlo fallacy, where we erroneously believe that a random event is less or more likely to occur based on previous events. As illustrated below, there is no significant correlation between returns from one six-month period to the next six-month period. Thus, suggesting that these events are independent and making decisions based on past results is a fallacy.

Graph above shows Returns delivered by the Nifty50 index in 6 months regressed with returns delivered in the previous months. Coefficient of Determination(R2) = 2.9%, which suggests that the previous 6 months’ returns explain only 2.9% of the variation in 6 months’ returns.

We live in a country that measures success through numbers like Board marks, JEE rank, CAT percentile, CTC etc. So, it is challenging to go against societal norms and pursue a career as a professional poker player. It is never an easy decision, as there are far too many people who do not see it as a career option and only think of it as gambling. One can win in the long run only by consistently making mathematically superior decisions, thus mitigating the aspect of luck. To succeed in poker or investing, one must have the ability to go against the common wisdom and think differently and independently.

Long-term thinking, making decisions in ambiguity, patience, and courage are common traits in investing and poker. Poker is a zero-sum game played by individuals who make money off each other. Whereas investing can be a positive sum game, one can add real value to the economy by matching the capital seekers to investors and making the capital allocation process more efficient.

(Manoj Mohan is the Executive Director at Centre for Financial Studies (CFS), Bhavan’s SPJIMR and Siddhartha Khanna, PGDM, Bhavan’s SPJIMR)

More Details