Monthly Archives: May 2023

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May 31, 2023
Nifty may head to 16500-16350 if it stays below 16888; watch SBI, Titan, DLF for stock-specific action

By Shivangi Sarda

Nifty index opened positive on Wednesday but failed to hold above 17130 zones and cascaded down throughout the session. Weakness got a tailwind in the second half of the session after the RBI Statement and the index breached its crucial support zones to touch the intraday low of 16623 levels. It formed a strong Bearish candle on the daily scale and closed with losses of 390 points.

Bank Nifty opened positive but failed to hold above 36300 zones and slipped down by almost 1200 points from its higher zones. It remained relatively resilient in the first half of the session but was overshadowed by weakness and it closed with losses of 900 points. It formed a strong Bearish candle on daily scale and supports shift lower.

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 35000 then 35500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 36500 then 36000 strike. We have seen significant Call writing in 36000 while Put writing is witnessed at 32000 with unwinding at 36000 strike. Now till it holds below 35500 zones, weakness could be seen towards 35250 and 35000 zones whereas resistances are placed at 35750 and 36000 zones.

On sectoral front, all the sectors are traded in the negative territory out of which Media, Realty, Banking, Financial Services and Pharma space witnessed the most weakness.

Now till it holds below 16888 zones, weakness could be seen towards 16500 and 16350 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 17000 and 17071 zones. Traders are advised to stay light with positive stock specific action in Britannia, Petronet, Powergrid and NTPC while weakness in Voltas, Naukri, Apollo Hospital, DLF, Ramco Cement, PEL, National Aluminium, Jubilant Foodworks, Lal Path Labs, Ashokley, Bajaj Finance, Pidilitind, Bank Baroda, Sun TV, Hindalco, Dixon, Can Bank, Berger Paint, SRF, Glenmark, Titan, Divislabs, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, and State Bank of India.

(Shivangi Sarda is an Analyst – Equity Derivatives & Technicals, Broking & Distribution at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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May 30, 2023
Gold to trade sideways to down this week, Silver to trade lower on weak demand; check support, resistance

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded lower with most of the commodities in the non-agro segment continued downside for the week except energy complex. Bullion prices traded volatile during the week on FED jitters and a stronger dollar. Crude oil prices rallied nearly 5% while natural gas prices rallied by more than 12% for the week on tight supplies and higher demand amid geopolitical risk. Base metals ended down on China demand worries following slowdown fear amid rising COVID-19 cases. The dollar index ended 0.68% up at 103.66 for the week.

Silver prices extended decline with spot silver prices at COMEX fell by 1.83% to $22.36 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver May futures fell by 1.59% to Rs. 62548 per KG for the week. Silver prices declined with fall in industrial metals amid rising COVID cases in China. The CFTC data showed that money managers have decreased their net long positions by 11273 lots in the last week.

Bullion prices fell for the third week on the trot with gold prices reporting the longest weekly loses since December 2021. Bullion prices traded under pressure on stronger dollar and volatile bond yields as speculation over high inflation worries kept bond yields up. The market had already discounted 50 bps hike in key interest rates which supported precious metals to rebound post US FOMC after FED chair Jerome Powell ruled out more aggressive increases. A selloff in long-end Treasuries has pushed 10-year yields firmly above 3%. The rising energy costs over the supply worries has spurred inflation worries while major central banks are set to shift policy stance to tackle inflation. The geopolitical risk over Russia-Ukraine conflict, higher oil prices and China COVID worries are the supporting factors which may limit downside in precious metals.

Gold prices may struggle to find a trend in short term and are expected to keep current trading range intact. Silver prices may trade under pressure following weaker demand.

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down this week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1920 per ounce and support at $1850 per ounce. At MCX, Gold June prices have near term resistance at Rs. 52100 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 50800 per 10 gram. COMEX Spot silver has near term resistance at $23.60 per ounce with support at $21.30 per ounce. MCX Silver July has important resistance at Rs. 64500 per KG and support at Rs. 60200 per KG.

(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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May 30, 2023
NSE FO ban: Ambuja Cements and others under ban on Monday, February 13, 2023

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) banned the trading in futures and options (F&O) of up to two stocks/securities on Monday, February 13, 2023. Indiabulls Housing Finance and Ambuja Cements are the stocks/securities placed on the National Stock Exchange’s futures and options (F&O) ban for trade on Monday. According to the NSE, the stocks mentioned above are prohibited in the F&O sector because they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Earlier, on Friday, the total number of contracts traded in Index futures was 2,44,635 with a turnover of Rs 23,324.37 crore; while contracts traded in stock futures were 7,57,418 with a turnover of Rs 49,196.68 crore.

The same stocks, Indiabulls Housing Finance and Ambuja Cements were put on the F&O ban earlier on Friday, February 10, 2023. The domestic equity indices ended the previous session mildly in red with Nifty 50 declining 37 points or 0.21% to 17,856.5 while Sensex closed 123 points lower at 60,682.7.

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May 29, 2023
Adani Group stocks bounce back from lows, Adani Enterprises up 101% in 4 days; is Hindenburg hangover fading?

Adani Group stocks rallied for the second straight day on Wednesday. The Gautam Adani-led conglomerate’s flagship firm Adani Enterprises was top gainer on the Nifty 50 index, zooming 11%, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shares were also among the top gainers, soaring around 8% in early trade. Adani group companies’ market value, which fell around $120 billion after claims of accounting fraud were levelled by short-seller US investment group Hindenburg Research, has seen a resurgence in the past few sessions. The rise in two consecutive sessions has helped trim the total loss to below $110 billion. The surge came after the group stated that it was repaying early loans worth $1.1 billion.

9 out of 10 Adani group stocks rally

Adani Enterprises share price hit 10% upper circuit limit at Rs 1,982.75, while Adani Transmission shares climbed 4.87% to Rs 1,312.70 after the company reported a 73% jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 478 crore for the December quarter. Adani Green Energy stocks rallied 2.48% to Rs 864.10 after the company consolidated profit more than doubled to Rs 103 crore in December quarter. Ambuja Cements shares jumped 2.27% and Adani Wilmar hit its 5% upper circuit limit at Rs 419.35.

Adani group stocks rise from the ashes; Hindenburg effect fading?

Adani Enterprises share price has rebounded 101% from a 52-week low hit on 3 February. The stock is currently trading 51% lower from its 52-week high hit last year in December. Adani Ports shares have rallied 50% from a 52-week low hit on 3 February. It is currently trading 40% lower from the 52-week high hit last year in September. Adani Total Gas is still down 65% from its 52-week price of Rs 3,998 hit on 23 January.

Adani Power share price has bounced back 7% from its recent low of Rs 170. However, the stock is trading 33% down from the closing price of 24 January, when Hindenburg released its report. Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy shares have surged nearly 10% and 7% respectively from their 52-week lows hit this week. Meanwhile, Adani Wilmar share price has rebounded 16% from its recent low.

StocksCMPRecent lowRecoveryAdani Enterprises20491017101%Adani Transmission131411989.6%Adani Wilmar41936116%Adani Ports59839451%Ambuja Cements38431521%ACC2041169620%NDTV22720113%

Hindenburg-Adani Row: The story so far

US-based investment research firm Hindenburg on January 24 accused Adani of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme” in “the largest con in corporate history”. Adani artificially boosted the share prices of its units by funnelling money into the stocks through offshore tax havens, the shirt-seller’s document said. The group benefited from what it called a “decades-long pattern” of government leniency, and that “investors, journalists, citizens, and even politicians have been afraid to speak out for fear of reprisal”, Hindenburg alleged.

In response to the scathing report, Adani group released a 413-page reply rejecting the claims as a “maliciously mischievous” reputational attack. “It is tremendously concerning that the statements of an entity sitting thousands of miles away, with no credibility or ethics has caused a serious and unprecedented adverse impact on our investors,” the Adani Group said. As Adani group stocks continued hitting new lows in the aftermath of the Hindenburg report, Gautam Adani reassured investors last week saying, “fundamentals of our company are very strong, our balance sheet is healthy and assets robust”. “These allegations are baseless,” he told India Today television on Friday.

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May 29, 2023
Petrol and Diesel Rate Today, 10 February: Fuel prices steady; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad:Fuel prices continued to stagnate on Friday, 10 February 2023, keeping costs steady for about eight months now. In Delhi, petrol is priced at Rs 96.72, while diesel in the National Capital is retailing at Rs 89.62 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre, and diesel is selling at Rs 94.27 per litre. The prices of petrol and diesel change state by state, depending upon various criteria such as Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, local taxes, etc. The last country-wide change in fuel rates was on 21 May last year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel.

Since the cut of excise duty by the central government in May 2022, some states have also reduced VAT prices on fuels, while some have imposed cess on petrol and diesel. The Punjab government decided to impose a cess of 90 paise per litre on petrol and diesel in a meeting of the state cabinet. Kerala Finance Minister KN Balagopal also announced a cess on petrol, diesel and liquor in the second full budget of the LDF government. A social security cess of Rs 2 per litre will be slapped on petrol and diesel.

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise their prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and forex rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel costs are implemented from 6 am every day. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently asked OMCs to cut the retail prices of petrol and diesel if the crude oil prices in the international market come down and also if OMCs under recovery come down. OMCs incurred a loss of Rs 21,200 crore on account of selling petrol and diesel below the cost price.

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May 25, 2023
Petrol and Diesel Rate Today, 22 February: Fuel prices unchanged; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad: Fuel prices continued to stagnate on Wednesday, 22 February 2023, keeping costs steady for about eight months now. In Delhi, petrol is priced at Rs 96.72, while diesel in the National Capital is retailing at Rs 89.62 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol is retailing at Rs 106.31 per litre, and diesel is selling at Rs 94.27 per litre. The prices of petrol and diesel change state by state, depending upon various criteria such as Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, local taxes, etc. The last country-wide change in fuel rates was on 21 May last year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel.

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Chennai: Petrol rate: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.24 per litreKolkata: Petrol rate today: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 92.76 per litreBengaluru: Petrol rate: Rs 101.94 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 87.89 per litreLucknow: Petrol rate: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.76 per litreNoida: Petrol rate: Rs 96.79 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.96 per litreGurugram: Petrol rate: Rs 97.18 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 90.05 per litreChandigarh: Petrol rate: Rs 96.20 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 84.26 per litreMumbai: Petrol rate: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.27 per litreDelhi: Petrol rate: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.62 per litre

Oil prices slipped in a volatile session as persistent concerns about global economic growth outweighed supply curbs and prompted investors to take profit on the previous day’s gains. Brent crude settled 1.2% lower at $83.05 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for March, fell 0.2% to $76.16 per barrel. The second-month contract slipped 0.38% to $76.16 a barrel.

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise their prices daily in line with international benchmark prices and forex rates. Any changes in petrol and diesel costs are implemented from 6 am every day. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently asked OMCs to cut the retail prices of petrol and diesel if the crude oil prices in the international market come down and also if OMCs under recovery come down. OMCs incurred a loss of Rs 21,200 crore on account of selling petrol and diesel below the cost price.

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May 13, 2023
Sebi tweaks operational framework on credit rating agencies

Sebi on Friday tweaked its operational circular on credit rating agencies (CRAs), asking them to have a detailed policy by March-end in respect of non-submission of crucial information, including quarterly financial numbers, by the issuers.

Also, the detailed policy should contain methodology in respect of assessing the risk of non-availability of information from the issuers, including non-cooperative issuers and the steps to be taken under various scenarios in order to ascertain the status of non-cooperation by the issuer company.

Also read: Markets Wrap – Fri, 3 Feb ‘23: Stocks skyrocket, rupee gains; Asia, Europe markets, Gold, Crude, Crypto updates

The CRA in its judgement may migrate a rating to the INC category before the expiry of three consecutive months of non-receipt of NDS.

In its fresh circular for CRAs, the regulator said that these requirements would be applicable by March 31, 2023.

Prior to that, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) came out with an operational circular on CRAs in January, which was to come into effect from February 1.

In its fresh circular, Sebi said that the MD or CEO of a CRA and any person within CRA who has business responsibility would not be a member of rating committees of the agency.

At the time of withdrawal of any credit rating of securities that are listed on a stock exchange, the CRA would have to assign a rating to such security and issue a press release in a prescribed format, except in cases where there are no outstanding obligations under the security rated by the CRA or the company whose security is rated is wound up or merged or amalgamated with another firm.

Further, the press release should also mention the reason for withdrawal.

Also read: Gold Price Today, 3 Feb: Gold may be volatile, prices hit by profit-taking; traders eye US jobs data

With regard to guidelines on the listed securities or instruments falling under the purview of other financial sector regulators, Sebi said that issuers of such instruments and any person connected therewith would abide by the rules as prescribed by such financial sector regulator.

Further, if such instruments are listed on a stock exchange, the rules specified by Sebi from time to time would continue to be applicable.

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May 11, 2023
Nifty’s close below 16800 to be negative for D-St; Buy SBI, ITC, others to pocket gains, charts show strength

By Shrikant Chouhan

Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 recorded volatile price action on Monday. Even though Nifty 50 / BSE Sensex opened below the psychological level of 17000/56500, they closed at 17069/56975, which is positive for the short term trend of the market. Fresh buying was seen in HDFC Bank and Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), while profit-booking was seen in auto and technology stocks. Technically, the market is holding above the level of 16800, but at the same time, it is failing to show sustained momentum. In short, the market is consolidating within a broad trading range of 17400-16800.

Technical stocks to buy

ITCBUY, CMP: Rs 263.15, TARGET: Rs 280, SL: Rs 255

After remarkable rally in the past few weeks the stock went into a range bound mode. At present, the stock is seen coming out of the consolidation phase with a range breakout. And hence the formation indicates a further uptrend from the current levels.

Muthoot Finance BUY, CMP: Rs 1,273.65, TARGET: Rs 1,340, SL: Rs 1,245

The counter had been in a declining trend in the past many months. However, at present there is a pause in its downward movement due to its strong multiple support levels. As the stock is available near to its demand zone which could act as a strong base, simultaneously making it a favorable candidate in terms of risk and reward.

Ultratech CementBUY, CMP: Rs 6,679, TARGET: Rs 7,020, SL: Rs 6,540

On the monthly scale, the stock has presented a robust rally, after a breather of few trading sessions, it has taken a pause in the momentum within a range. Currently, the counter is trading near the lower boundary of the range which indicates reversal from current levels.

State Bank of India (SBI)BUY, CMP: Rs 491, TARGET: Rs 515, SL: Rs 480

The stock witnessed gradual price decline from the higher levels, however, its down move took a pause with a hammer candlestick pattern. The counter has formed a reversal formation with decent volume activity and retreated from the lower levels for a fresh leg of uptrend in coming trading sessions.

(Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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May 6, 2023
Nifty may head to 17250-17350 if it holds 17050; watch RIL, Airtel, IRCTC, BPCL stocks for action

By Shivangi Sarda

Nifty index opened positive on Wednesday and remained range-bound within a trading range of 100 points for the most part of the day. During the day it witnessed buying interest from 17050 to 17186 marks but the absence of follow up was not allowing it to hold at higher zones. It formed an Inside Bar and a Harami candle on daily scale and closed the day with gains of around 180 points.

Bank Nifty opened positive but relatively underperformed the market. It moved in a zig-zag fashion throughout the session and closed flattish with losses of around 25 points. It formed a small-bodied Bearish candle and an inside Bar on the daily scale.

For weekly Bank Nifty, maximum Put OI is at 36000 then 34500 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 38000 then 37000 strike. We have seen Call writing in 36500 while Put writing was witnessed at 34500 strike. Now till it holds below 36500 zones, weakness can be seen towards 36000 and 35750 whereas hurdles are placed at 36750 and 37000 zones.

On sectoral front, PSU Banks, Media, Metal and Financial Services stocks traded in the negative territory and the Auto, IT, FMCG and Pharma sectors showed the most strength.

Now for the day point of view, it has to hold above 17050 zones, for an up move towards 17250 and 17350 whereas support can be seen at 16950 and 16800 zones. However, till Nifty doesn’t surpass 17350 zones, overall medium-term setup could find pressure at higher zones. Traders are advised to apply the buy on decline strategy and be with stock specific action in Ambujacem, Ultracemco, BPCL, Reliance Industries, Astral, Ramcocem, UPL, Hindpetro, IOC, Bharti Airtel, BEL, Havells, and AU Bank while weakness in LTI, SAIL, IGL, IRCTC, LT, and Glenmark.

(Shivangi Sarda is an Analyst – Equity Derivatives & Technicals, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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May 6, 2023
Stocks shrug off rates risk as US consumers spend

Bonds fell and the dollar rose on Thursday as roaring U.S. retail sales had investors reckoning on interest rates staying higher for longer to temper demand, though stock markets were focused on the bright side for earnings and climbed a little. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% overnight. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6% in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6%.

The greenback stood near six-week highs against the yen, yuan and kiwi. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, hit their highest since early January. U.S. retail sales increased by the most in nearly two years in January – up 3%, against expectations of a 1.8% rise – as Americans bought cars, clothes and furniture despite higher borrowing costs.

“A lot of the data has been quite positive, so people might be thinking: ‘Where’s the recession?’” said Jason Wong, a senior market strategist a BNZ in Wellington. “It’s positive for earnings and that can offset rates – at least that’s the charitable explanation,” he said. “Either that, or it’s a massive ‘sell’ (signal)”.

U.S. interest rate futures – which only a couple of weeks ago implied the Fed funds rate, currently fixed between 4.5% and 4.75%, would drop below 4.5% by year’s end – now see rates above 5% through the year.Two-year Treasury yields, which also track short-term interest rate expectations, hit their highest since November at 4.703% overnight. The ten-year yield hit 3.828% on Thursday.S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%.

DOLLAR ASCENDANT

Around Asia, South Korea’s Kospi led gains with a 1.4% rise. The Hang Seng rose 0.7% and mainland Chinese stocks were flat. Australia’s ASX 200, where companies are in the midst of earnings reporting, rose 0.9%. Wealth manager AMP led losers with a 34% annual profit drop that sent its struggling shares down 13%. A 26% gain in profit at telco Telstra drove the stock to a one-year high. Elsewhere the repricing of the interest rates outlook is putting an end to a couple months of selling of the dollar in currency markets.

The U.S. dollar index is eying a third weekly gain in a row – the longest streak since September, when the index was galloping towards a 20-year high. The dollar made a six-week high of 134.36 yen on Wednesday and hovered at 133.99 early on Thursday. It is also testing resistance near $1.0656 per euro and was last at $1.0669.

The Australian dollar fell 0.5% and through its 50-day moving average to $0.6868 after a surprise rise in unemployment that also cooled bets on interest rate hikes.”The Aussie still has some support around the $0.6850/80 area, but with the U.S. dollar in the ascendancy, the Aussie is certainly looking vulnerable,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Commodities have struggled for traction as the dollar has gained. Brent crude futures were up 0.2% to $78.76 on Thursday. Gold was attempting to steady at $1,840 an ounce. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has been on a tear. It hit a six-month high of $24,895.

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