Monthly Archives: December 2022

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Dec 31, 2022
Adani Enterprises to be dropped from Dow Jones sustainability indices

S&P Dow Jones has said it will remove Adani Group‘s flagship firm Adani Enterprises from sustainability indices with effect from February 7 following a media and stakeholder analysis triggered by allegations of accounting fraud. The move comes amid leading stock exchanges BSE and NSE putting three Adani Group companies — Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone and Ambuja Cements — under their short-term additional surveillance measure (ASM) framework.

“Adani Enterprises will be removed from the Dow Jones sustainability indices following a media and stakeholder analysis triggered by allegations of accounting fraud,” S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement. It will make the changes to the Dow Jones sustainability indices, effective prior to the opening on February 7.

On Wednesday, Adani Enterprises said it will not go ahead with its Rs 20,000-crore Follow-on Public Offer (FPO) and will return the proceeds to investors. Adani Group stocks have taken a beating on the bourses after US-based Hindenburg Research made a litany of allegations in a report, including fraudulent transactions and share price manipulation at the Gautam Adani-led group. Adani Group has dismissed the charges as lies, saying it complies with all laws and disclosure requirements.

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Dec 31, 2022
Nifty may fall to 16400, Bank Nifty above 37000 will regain strength; Buy ACC, Airtel this monthly F&O expiry

By Ajit Mishra

Participants, especially traders, really had a tough time in the April series as the benchmark oscillated in a broader range and finally settled with a cut of over a percent. Global factors like the possibility of faster than expected tightening by the US Fed, geopolitical tension between Russia-Ukraine and re-emergence of COVID in China, etc. continue to weigh on the sentiment however buying in selective index majors capped the downside in the final weeks.

Nifty (CMP:17,245): It has been trading in a broadening declining formation for the last six months and currently hovering around the crucial support zone of the long term moving average(200 EMA), after testing the upper band of the range around 18,150 levels in early April.

Going ahead, we believe the 16,800 level would act as a make or break zone. A decisive breakdown would strengthen the bears and may result in a gradual decline towards 16,400 or lower in the coming weeks. In case of a rebound, the 18,000 zone would act as a stiff resistance.

Bank Nifty (CMP: 36,442): The banking index traded largely in sync with the benchmark in April month and finally settled on a flat note. Currently, it’s trading in a congestion zone around the moving averages ribbon on the daily chart. To regain strength, the banking index should reclaim the 37,000 zone decisively which could fuel the recovery to 38,000-39,500 in the following weeks. In case of a breakdown below 35,500 zone, the pressure may resume which may result in retesting of 34,000 level.

Amid all, we believe stocks like ACC, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, Coromandel Fertilisers, Dabur India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, TVS Motors, UPL and Voltas have the potential to do well in the May series.

(Ajit Mishra, VP — Research, Religare Broking, Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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Dec 31, 2022
Bagidora Rajasthan Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

Bagidora RJ Assembly Election 2023 Details: The election for Bagidora Assembly Constituency in Rajasthan will be held on November 25 this year. The final date of voting and result were known after the formal announcement by the Election Commission of India. Here are the important details of the Bagidora Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that you should know.

Bagidora Constituency Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

November 25 is the date of voting for the Bagidora Assembly Constituency Election 2023 as announced by the Election Commission of India.

Bagidora Constituency Rajasthan Election 2023: Candidates List

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and other political parties in the state will announce their candidates for the Bagidora Assembly Constituency Election 2023 after the announcement of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Why Bagidora Constituency Assembly Election 2023 is Important

Bagidora is a state Assembly/Vidhan Sabha constituency in the state of Rajasthan and is part of the Bagidora Lok Sabha/Parliamentary constituency. Bagidora falls in the Bagidora district of Rajasthan and is categorised as an urban seat.

Bagidora Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2018

Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Bagidora constituency in the RJ Assembly elections 2018, securing 97638 votes while 76328 votes were polled in favour of Khemraj Garasiya of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The margin of victory was 21310 votes.

2018 Bagidora Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesMahendrajeet Singh MalviyaIndian National Congress97638

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya Indian National Congress 97638 (49.35%) Khemraj Garasiya Bharatiya Janata Party 76328 (38.58%) Kamalkant Katara Bhartiya Tribal Party 9538 (4.82%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 5581 (2.82%) Ratan Bahujan Samaj Party 3309 (1.67%) Jahu Independent 2837 (1.43%) Kamalkishor Pargi Independent 1364 (0.69%) Valaram Janata Dal (united) 1267 (0.64%)

Bagidora Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2013

Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Bagidora constituency in the RJ Assembly elections 2013, securing 81016 votes while 66691 votes were polled in favour of Khemraj Garasiya of the Bharatiya Janata Party. The margin of victory was 14325 votes.

2013 Bagidora Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesMahendrajeet Singh MalviyaIndian National Congress81016

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya Indian National Congress 81016 (49.42%) Khemraj Garasiya Bharatiya Janata Party 66691 (40.68%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 7259 (4.43%) Bhuralal Janata Dal (united) 5836 (3.56%) Pravin Katara Bahujan Samaj Party 3139 (1.91%)

Bagidora Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2008

Mahendrajeet Singh of the INC was the winning candidate from the Bagidora constituency in the RJ Assembly elections 2008, securing 76113 votes while 31424 votes were polled in favour of Jeetmalkhant of the JD(U). The margin of victory was 44689 votes.

2008 Bagidora Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesMahendrajeet SinghINC76113

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Mahendrajeet Singh INC 76113 (63.48%) Jeetmalkhant JD(U) 31424 (26.21%) Prof Mohanlal Damor IND 5792 (4.83%) Mohanlal BSP 4564 (3.81%) Kalsingh Makwana SP 2013 (1.68%)

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Dec 30, 2022
Lunglei South Mizoram Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

Lunglei South MZ Assembly Election 2023 Details: The election for Lunglei South Assembly Constituency in Mizoram will be held on November 7 this year. The final date of voting and result were known after the formal announcement by the Election Commission of India. Here are the important details of the Lunglei South Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that you should know.

Lunglei South Constituency Mizoram Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

November 7 is the date of voting for the Lunglei South Assembly Constituency Election 2023 as announced by the Election Commission of India.

Lunglei South Constituency Mizoram Election 2023: Candidates List

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), Congress and other political parties in the state will announce their candidates for the Lunglei South Assembly Constituency Election 2023 after the announcement of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Why Lunglei South Constituency Assembly Election 2023 is Important

Lunglei South is a state Assembly/Vidhan Sabha constituency in the state of Mizoram and is part of the Lunglei South Lok Sabha/Parliamentary constituency. Lunglei South falls in the Lunglei South district of Mizoram and is categorised as an urban seat.

Lunglei South Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2018

K Pachhunga of the Mizo National Front was the winning candidate from the Lunglei South constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2018, securing 6245 votes while 3804 votes were polled in favour of R Lalnunthara of the Indian National Congress. The margin of victory was 2441 votes.

2018 Lunglei South Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesK PachhungaMizo National Front6245

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) K Pachhunga Mizo National Front 6245 (43.03%) R Lalnunthara Indian National Congress 3804 (26.21%) Rev Dr K Thanzauva Independent 3492 (24.06%) Dr Aichhunga Bharatiya Janata Party 920 (6.34%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 53 (0.37%)

Lunglei South Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2013

S Laldingliana of the Indian National Congress was the winning candidate from the Lunglei South constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2013, securing 6230 votes while 5780 votes were polled in favour of Dr K Pachhunga of the Mizo National Front. The margin of victory was 450 votes.

2013 Lunglei South Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesS LaldinglianaIndian National Congress6230

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) S Laldingliana Indian National Congress 6230 (47.45%) Dr K Pachhunga Mizo National Front 5780 (44.02%) Dr Aichhunga Zoram Nationalist Party 1037 (7.9%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 83 (0.63%)

Lunglei South Constituency MZ Election Result: What happened in 2008

S Laldingliana of the INC was the winning candidate from the Lunglei South constituency in the MZ Assembly elections 2008, securing 5276 votes while 4235 votes were polled in favour of Z H Ropuia of the MNF. The margin of victory was 1041 votes.

2008 Lunglei South Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesS LaldinglianaINC5276

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) S Laldingliana INC 5276 (44.54%) Z H Ropuia MNF 4235 (35.75%) Saitlawma ZNP 2164 (18.27%) Vanlalhruaia Hauhulh IND 118 (1%) Lalthuammawii LJP 53 (0.45%)

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Dec 27, 2022
No new commitments till volatility lasts: Adani Group

Adani Enterprises, which had scaled up operations at a breakneck speed over the past few years, will refrain from bidding for new projects till the time the volatility in the market remains, one of its top officials said.

“We will not make new commitments till we settle this volatility period,” Jugeshinder Singh, group CFO, Adani Group, told analysts in a post earnings call. He, however, added that the group will come out with a formal plan over the next six weeks as part of the March quarter results.

“Our investments in the core infrastructure sector, which includes energy and utility and transport and logistics portfolio, will continue as planned. However, given the volatility we will moderate certain accelerations we had budgeted in the capex profile and we will now continue with ordinary courses of business-based capex,” Singh added.

Some of the big-ticket projects that the company has bagged include the `16,700-crore Navi Mumbai International Airport and a lion’s share of the Ganga Expressway, which is worth `17,000 crore. Such projects will go ahead as planned and the current volatility will not have any impact on them, the CFO said.

“There is no change in ongoing projects. Navi Mumbai Airport will be completed on schedule which is December 2024,” Singh added.

The company has 14 road projects, including three under the Ganga Expressway, under its belt. Only one of these projects has started toll collection, while four projects have project completion status ranging between 1% and 2%. The company will not be making any significant bidding in new road projects.  

Reports on Tuesday stated that the Adani group has appointed Grant Thornton for independent audits of its companies in a bid to discredit claims by short-seller Hinderberg Research, which hit the value of its stocks and bonds.

Last week, France’s TotalEnergies said it has put on hold participation in Adani’s $50-billion hydrogen project pending results of an audit launched following allegations levelled by Hindenburg. The French oil giant was to take a 25% stake in Adani’s hydrogen venture.

“The first stage of the (hydrogen) project was related to integrated manufacturing and that is continuing. The MoU with Total was signed in May. Engineering, marketing and technical due diligence is continuing and that work takes time on large projects like this and Total is doing it. Once that work is completed, we will come back and revisit,” Singh added.

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Dec 25, 2022
F&O Expiry Analysis: FIIs reducing long positions in index futures, Nifty support in 17300-17250 range

By Ruchit Jain 

April futures & options series had started on a positive note as the indices had seen good long rollovers from the March series. Nifty reclaimed the 18000 mark at the start of the series, but there was no follow up buying seen. The index then corrected gradually from the highs due to long unwinding and gave up the gains to end around 17500. Even in stocks specific move, the unwinding of long positions was seen in certain heavyweights.

Since the markets have an extended weekend, the open interest concentration in the coming weekly series is scattered. The highest open interest in the coming weekly series is at 18500 call and 17000 put options. Monday’s market open could depend on the movement of global markets in the next couple of days and the follow-up move at the start of the week could then set the trend for the coming week. Looking at the data by the stronger hands, we would advise traders to be cautious and avoid aggressive positions until follow up buying is seen. The immediate support for Nifty is placed in the range of  17300-17250 while 17800 followed by 18000 will be seen as hurdles.

(Ruchit Jain is the Lead – Research at 5paisa.com. The views expressed by the author are his own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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Dec 25, 2022
Gurugram emerges as real estate powerhouse in 2023

Gurugram has emerged as the unrivalled leader in India’s booming real estate sector in 2023. The city’s dynamic growth is reshaping the landscape, driven by a confluence of factors that are revolutionizing the industry.

From luxury independent floors to sustainable co-living spaces and spacious homes, developers are crafting visionary solutions that cater to a diverse range of preferences. Gurugram is at the epicentre of this transformation, witnessing a surge in innovative projects tailored to meet the evolving needs of the market.

He adds, “In fact, the Golf Course Extension Road has become the nerve center of Gurgaon due to a flurry of infrastructure developments, luxury residential projects, office spaces, retail spaces, entertainment options, and recreation options. According to reports, between 2019 and 2022, the average rental price for luxury homes of approximately 2,000 square feet in the Golf Course Extension increased by 18 per cent, rising from Rs 49,000 per month in 2019 to Rs 58,000 per month in 2022.”

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Notably, the Gurugram real estate landscape has been abuzz with the news of a significant Rs 100-crore transaction, involving a sprawling 10,000 square feet apartment at The Camellias by DLF on the Golf Course Road. In the April-June 2023 quarter, residential property prices across India experienced a commendable 6% year-on-year increase, with Gurugram leading the pack with an impressive 12% year-on-year growth. Recent data from Magicbricks only serves to underscore Gurugram’s meteoric ascent, boasting a remarkable quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.9%, far surpassing the national average of 10.4%.

Mohit Malhotra, Founder & CEO, NeoLiv, says, “The demand surge can be attributed to Gurugram’s burgeoning status as a global hub for industries, start-ups, MNCs, and a substantial-high-quality workforce in search of superior housing options. The focus on infrastructure upgradation and augmentation in NCR, especially Gurgaon with its high quality living standard is adding to this demand surge. This momentum is expected to continue as NCR is grappling with housing supply in the mid to premium segment and we see huge potential building up in this segment.”

In an unprecedented turn of events, residential sales in Delhi-NCR reached a 10-year high in the first half of 2023, with Gurugram accounting for over half of the units sold, boasting an astonishing 52% share. The price range of Rs 7,000-7,200 per square foot speaks to the city’s immense growth potential.

Commenting on this, Kunal Rishi, COO, Paras Buildtech, says, “Gurugram’s allure now extends to both first-time and seasoned homebuyers in pursuit of an elevated lifestyle. The surge in high-rise living options aligns seamlessly with post-pandemic preferences, bolstered by enhanced connectivity that propels the city’s real estate resurgence. With the third highest per capita income in India and the highest in Haryana, coupled with impeccable connectivity, top-tier infrastructure, and a diverse range of modern projects including independent floors, gated plotted developments, and soaring apartments, Gurugram stands as a pivotal residential and industrial hub, beckoning discerning buyers from around the globe.”

As the years unfold, Gurugram’s trajectory seems boundless, promising even greater heights of achievement and innovation. The skyline, once a canvas of potential, now boasts of architectural marvels that redefine urban living. According to industry experts, Gurugram stands not only as a city of the present but as a beacon of the future, demonstrating the limitless possibilities of human endeavour in the realm of real estate. With each passing day, it continues to inspire, leaving us eager to witness the next chapter in its extraordinary journey.

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Dec 24, 2022
Nifty may trade in 17800-17200 range this week, sugar, FMCG sector could gain; Check trading strategy

By Rajesh Palviya

Nifty started last week on a flat note however selling pressure throughout the week led the index to end on a weak note. Nifty closed at 17476 with a loss of 309 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart the index has formed a long bearish candle forming lower High-Low compared to the previous week indicating weakness at current levels. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above the 17700 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 17900-18100 levels. However, if the index breaks below the 17400 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 17100-17000. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 17800-17200 with mixed bias. The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving upwards and is quoting above its reference line indicating positive bias.  

Bank Nifty outlook

Bank Nifty started the week on a flat note and remained in a narrow range (38000-37200) throughout the week, indicating lack of strength on either side. Bank Nifty closed at 37463 with a loss of 289 points on a weekly basis . On the weekly chart the index has formed a “Doji” candlestick formation indicating indecisiveness amongst market participants regarding the direction. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 38000 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 38500-39200 levels. However if the index breaks below 37100 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 37000-36400 . Bank Nifty is trading above20, 50, and 100day SMA’s which indicates positive bias in the short to medium term .For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 38500-36500 with mixed bias.

Derivative Outlook :

BankNifty closed at 37576 on negative note with 8.17% increase in open interest indicating Short Build Up. BankNifty Futures closed at a premium of 113 points compared to the previous day discount of 7 points. BankNifty Put options OI distribution shows that 37500 has highest OI concentration followed by 37000 & 36500 which may act as support for current expiry. BankNifty Call strike 38000 followed by 37500 witnessed significant OI concentration and may act as resistance for current expiry.

Sectors and Stocks for this week :

We expect Sugar, Fertilisers, Chemical, Cement and FMCG sectors may show some buying interest in the coming weeks while IT, Banking and Automobiles may witness some selling pressure.

Strategy for Coming Week : After a Long holiday weekend, the markets are likely to make a strong move in either of the directions and to take advantage of the same we are suggesting a market-neutral strategy called Long Straddle for weekly expiry at 21st April 2022. This strategy involves buying of (ATM) CALL & PUT one lot each of 17,500 strike having premium of 139 & 137 respectively garnering in total premium outflow of Rs 13,800.As it’s a debit spread, from profit perspective this strategy can generate theoretically unlimited profit while the loss is restricted to total premium paid if Nifty closes exactly at the Long strikes i.e 17,500 on expiry; however once Nifty breaches the upper breakeven level of 17,776 or the lower breakeven level of 17,224 and sustains on either side then the profit can be unlimited. It’s advisable to maintain a combine premium (i.e add premium of call + put together) stop loss of 100-120 points  so that if Nifty doesn’t make a strong move then losses can be curtailed by following the above mentioned stop loss or else as per risk appetite can even hold till expiry. The strategy will generate profits once Nifty breaches the range of 17,776 on upside or 17,224 on lower side on the expiry and also closes above or below the break even points.

(Rajesh Palviya, VP – Research (Head Technical & Derivatives), Axis Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)

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Dec 24, 2022
Chorasi Rajasthan Assembly Constituency Election 2023: Date of Result, Voting, Counting; Candidates

As anticipation mounts for the upcoming Chorasi Constituency Election in Rajasthan, voters are eagerly awaiting the big battle that kicks off with the announcement of key dates by the Election Commission of India. Here, we provide you with essential details about the Chorasi Constituency Assembly Election 2023 that every voter should be aware of.

Chorasi Constituency Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023: Voting Date

The voting date for the Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election 2023 has been officially announced by the Election Commission. As per the ECI, Chorasi Assembly Constituency will go to polls on November 25. Stay tuned for updates as we bring you the latest information.

Chorasi Rajasthan Election 2023: Candidates

Watch this space as prominent political parties, including the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP)Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)and Indian National Congress(INC) along with others, are poised to reveal their candidates for the Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election 2023 post the official declaration of voting dates by the Election Commission of India.

Stay informed as we bring you the latest updates on the Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election 2023, keeping you abreast of all the developments and insights that matter to you.

Chorasi Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2018

Rajkumar Roat from Chorasi of Rajasthan, won the seat with 64119 votes. He defeated Bharatiya Janata Party’ Sushil Katara who had polled 51185 votes. The winning margin was 12934 votes.

2018 Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesRajkumar RoatBhartiya Tribal Party64119

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Rajkumar Roat Bhartiya Tribal Party 64119 (38.22%) Sushil Katara Bharatiya Janata Party 51185 (30.51%) Manjula Devi Roat Indian National Congress 35915 (21.41%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 4692 (2.8%) Jayprakash Roat Independent 2314 (1.38%) Kanhaiyalal Kalasua Bahujan Mukti Party 2180 (1.3%) Vijayapal Roat Bahujan Samaj Party 2047 (1.22%) Nitesh Parmar Naya Bharat Party 1800 (1.07%) Kantilal Bhamat Independent 1796 (1.07%) Laxman Damor Independent 1733 (1.03%)

Chorasi Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2013

In the Rajasthan Assembly election of 2013, Sushil Katara won from the Chorasi seat garnering 72247 votes and defeated Indian National Congress candidate Mahendra Kumar Barjod who bagged 51934 votes. The candidate who came third was National People’s Party’ Rajendra Bamaniya.

Sushil Katara got 72247 votes while Mahendra Kumar Barjod got 51934 votes.

2013 Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesSushil KataraBharatiya Janata Party72247

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Sushil Katara Bharatiya Janata Party 72247 (50.17%) Mahendra Kumar Barjod Indian National Congress 51934 (36.07%) Rajendra Bamaniya National People’s Party 7351 (5.11%) None Of The Above None Of The Above 7213 (5.01%) Vijay Pal Bahujan Samaj Party 3012 (2.09%) Ramchandra Palat Bharatiya Yuva Shakti 2237 (1.55%)

Chorasi Constituency RJ Election Result: What happened in 2008

Shankar Lal Ahari of the INC was the winning candidate from the Chorasi constituency in the RJ Assembly elections 2008, securing 46023 votes while 39809 votes were polled in favour of Sushil Katara of the BJP. The margin of victory was 6214 votes.

2008 Chorasi Assembly Constituency Election Result

Winning Candidate NameParty NameTotal VotesShankar Lal AhariINC46023

Candidate List Party Name Votes Gained (Vote %) Shankar Lal Ahari INC 46023 (42.49%) Sushil Katara BJP 39809 (36.76%) Bhawarlal IND 11024 (10.18%) Madanlal Katara IND 5904 (5.45%) Ramchandra BSP 5548 (5.12%)

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Dec 23, 2022
Wall St Week Ahead-Signs of market strength cheer U.S. stocks bulls

U.S. stock bulls are taking heart from a range of market signals pointing to an upbeat year for Wall Street, as equities sit on impressive gains despite worries that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may plunge the economy into a recession.Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a “golden cross” chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows.Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof.

Weak outlooks for corporate heavyweights such as Amazon and Microsoft and a blowout employment number that heightened expectations for Fed hawkishness injected a fresh note of uncertainty into markets on Friday, though the S&P 500 remains up 7.7% year-to-date.

JANUARY JUMP

The S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy.

When the S&P 500 has advanced in January, the market has gone on to rise in the subsequent February-December period 83% of the time, with an average 11-month gain of over 11%, according to an analysis of data going back to World War II by CFRA Research.An up January after a down year, however, was followed by a gain of 23.1% from February to December with a 92% success rate.Despite a recent rally that may have made stocks comparatively expensive, “the track record implies that maybe we do have some upside potential,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

GOLDEN CROSS

Meanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced an average 12-month return of 10.5% after a golden cross formed, while the overall average annual return since 1950 is 9.1%, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Research.However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining – as it is now – the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.”The recent golden cross adds to the growing technical evidence of a trend change for the S&P 500 and further raises the probabilities of the bear market low being set in October,” Turnquist said in a post.

IMPROVING INTERNALS

Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at All Star Charts, said all five indicators on his bull market checklist were fulfilled in January, including upside volume and risk appetite metrics, something that did not occur once in 2022.One of those indicators showed more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq making new 52-week highs than lows — — a sign that the rally is being led by a broad range of stocks, rather than a cluster of heavyweights. That happened as many times in January as it did during all of 2022, Delwiche said.

However, some investors believe stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves.Friday’s data showing U.S. employment growth accelerating sharply in January renewed the inflation concerns that hammered stocks last year and ignited bets on a more hawkish Fed.”The January employment report was unambiguously strong and should be the start of a series of data points showing stronger activity and inflation in early 2023,” analysts at Citi wrote. “We expect this emerging trend should push back on too-dovish market pricing.”

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